Tuesday, April 2, 2024
America afraid of China
China's rise as I was saying was inevitable. It was unnatural for China to go from having 25 to 30% of the world's economy in 1820; 2% in 1950, 2% was an unreal figure. It's quite natural for China to go back up and achieve the world's largest economy. For the last 200 years the number one power has always been a Western power so even when power pass, Number one power pass from the British to the Americans, even it went from one Western power to another Western power. But now we are facing a transition for the first time in 200 years, where the number one power it's gonna be a non-Western power which is China, and so this is something that the world hasn't dealt with for 200 years, and therefore it's not surprising that many do not know how to handle this transition; it is inevitable that the United states would at some point become very concerned about China's rise, and When I spent three months in America. I was shocked to discover how frightened of China and as a result, the anti Chinese sentiment has grown significantly in America and so it is inevitable the America is going to look for new ways and means of counter balancing China, And so the idea of indo Pacific what's behind the indo Pacific is a way to find to balance China's enormous growth but at the same time it will be wise for China not to react negatively to the idea of Indo-Pacific because if you look at the ancient history of Asia, many Chinese scholars, Xuan Zang, used to travel from China through Southeast Asia to India to study and there's a famous university called Nalanda university in Bihar, so the Indo Pacific and maybe an idea that the Americans are creating is also a good description of ancient Asian history and it's good for us to recreate all connections of the past I think that it would be India’s national interests to work with China, on the belt and Road. initiative but right now there's a small technical problem which is that as part of the belt and Road. initiative China and Pakistan have established the China Pakistan economic corridor which goes through territory which is disputed between Pakistan and India; so as a result of that, it is, I think natural that India has to object that But that can be overcome and you can find Ways and Means of overcoming those differences, and to focus on areas where they can work together because frankly one thing that India needs very badly today is good infrastructure and the infrastructure superpower the world for there is China. So China, India partnership to build a good infrastructure, will be a tremendous boost the India economy, so in some ways the Belt and Road on initiative is also an Indo Pacific idea, because the Belt and Road initiative is not just about the old Silk Road, going across Central Asia but there's also a road a maritime silk road that goes through Southeast Asia through India to the middle east. So there's no incompatibility behind the BRI idea, that Belt and Road initiative and the Indo-Pacific idea. I think there's no, if you look at China's long history; if China had had the same imperialist instincts, global imperial instinct as the Western countries, Australia should have been a Chinese country, but instead of, Australia was a Western country because the British colonizers came all the way from the Atlantic to the Pacific to colonize Australia so I think that hasn't been this traditionally this impulse in Chinese history to go out around the world and to conquer the world and so that's something that I think that long history of China I think is a reassuring sign for the world that when China becomes a great power it will not try to repeat what the West did at the height of its power and colonize the world. But we are at a fork in the road, so if the US and China, for example, this can happen, decide to go for zero sum competition Where will win for one is a loss for the other, then it will be a very troubled world, and you'll see lots of geopolitical turbulence around the world, But you take the other road, and if the US and China decide that, yes they have differences they will compete in some areas there will be economic competition economic competition is good for the world but there will be or military containment policies, then you could have overall a more stable world order, but nobody knows what's going to happen because the America leaders don't know what China is going to do and they don't know what they will do And China’s leaders also do not know what America's leaders will do nor can they predict how they will respond to this too.
China is already Number One. America is in pain because they can not kill Huawei, Da Jiang and Biyadi etc.
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