Jeffey Sachs talk

Most Members of Congress are anti Chinese in their sentiment. Most are rather ignorant I would say of China and global realities, but whether ignorant or not they have some say and so the anti China sentiment is quite strong. We're going into an election year which is always a further. Yeah, it's an occasion of exaggeration, fear mongering and so forth. So this could even increase the tensions. The tensions over Taiwan are very, very high. There are two motivations of, well, I would say maybe 3 motivations of the US policies. And I don't agree with them. But the three motivations are first, to try to protect American industry, because America lost a lot of its industry to competition from China and from other countries in the last 30 years, and it believes that protectionism. Is the way to build the industry once again. So that's one motivation. A second motivation is deliberately to try to slow China's economic progress. This is sometimes called containment, and it's a part of the US. Policy. I even more strongly disagree with that, because I don't think it's the business of any country to try to hurt the economy of another country, even a competitor. But the United States is overtly trying to hurt China’s economy, and I really object to that. The third motivation is military, the claim that the US is taking steps to protect its. Military technology as part of competition with China, not to hurt the overall Chinese economy. I think that this argument is also greatly overblown, because while countries will have their military secrets and will aim to keep military technology secret. The United States is pursuing a very crude approach to this. Labeling so many things military on the idea that maybe it could have a military application even when the overwhelming uses are civilian. So if this were really the consideration, I think the US and China would negotiate bilaterally in specific detail over specific issues. And it's hard to make one. They're making you. So what are the implications and prospects of this? Well, first. It is possible, though not likely, that the United States would reverse some of the actions that it's taken. That is the course that I favor, because the US is imposed these steps unilaterally, not as part of any kind of negotiation with China, not under the rules of the world. Trade Organization, but simply, unilaterally. I've objected each time. But I my objection doesn't count. Other than in the public advocacy, the politics in Washington have remained quite anti China in this regard so. One possibility, though, is that as the US and China resume a strategic dialogue, which they promised to do, including High Level Economic dialogue led by the US Treasury and the Chinese officials in charge of the economy, maybe they would work out. Better arrangements and the US would remove some of its unilateral policies. I very much hope that's the case. If not. China faces a problem without question, which is that China's growth of exports to the US market has stopped. In fact, this year Chinas exports to the US are lower than in 2022 comparing month. Versus the month 12 months ago. So we can see that the US actions are already having an effect and this is part of the reason why China's growth has slowed this year. China's slower growth this year is often attributed to the financial problems in the real estate sector or specific. Within China, problems, but definitely a factor in the slowdown, is the US trade policy. So my own. Recommendations for China in response to this? Is to promote its exports in other markets. So if the US is closing. Exports to Chinese goods. I would like to see China promote its very effective, low cost, high quality exports to. The emerging economies, and China's main instrument for doing that, it seems to me, is the Belt and Rd. initiative, which is a initiative that I strongly support. It is that China lends money to other countries to buy modernized infrastructure to build the fast rail or the 5G or the renewable energy grid that those countries need and by providing low cost long term financing. China's making a big contribution to the development, say, of the ASEAN countries or East Africa or Latin America. So next month, China has the 10th Belton Rd. Summit It's the 10th anniversary of this DRI because it was launched in 2013. I would like to see China announce an expanded Belton Rd. initiative. I think that would be good for Chinas exports, good for China's economy and good for the partner countries. So if the US won't accept Chinese exports, most of the world needs them. Because most of the world still needs fast rail, renewable energy systems, 5G and other core infrastructure. And China's the low cost, high quality producer of that infrastructure and the Bri is designed precisely to finance that kind of infrastructure. So. This is an approach that I would advocate. OK, Does he hang on. No, hang on. Your dinner. The young Jenna. Probably a couple dozen, yeah, yeah, Many, many trips, many visits. I I came around 1970 and 1981, I think was the first trip, and this was a trip also to the mainland and to Hong Kong, and it was a. Very, very thrilling. And you know, as a. I think Milton Friedman may have said it, but I have felt it definitely, which is as an economist, if you don't like, if you don't love Hong Kong, you don't love economics, you know, so this is kind of home of world market economy. So it's always been amazing to be in this. Incredibly exciting and vibrant place. Hi, Foxy. Some. So the operating Hannah. Reserved now to experience Jehovah while Biltmore blooms. Well, I think we still have not seen the playing out of this story yet, because the tensions between the US and China remain very high. I. The US politics are. Not in a good shape, because most. Members of Congress are anti Chinese in their sentiment. Most are rather ignorant I would say of China and global realities, but whether ignorant or not they have some say and so the anti China sentiment is quite strong. We're going into an election year which is always a further. I. It's an occasion of exaggeration, fear mongering and so forth, So this could even increase the tensions. The tensions over Taiwan are very, very high and the bricks which. Expanded by 6 more countries a few weeks ago. And therefore constitute a very important economic group. Roughly 37% of world output measured at international prices have the determined to create a non dollar payments mechanism among the BRICS countries. So the BRICS countries are determined to create a way to engage in international trade. That skirts the international banking system. All of this will affect Hong Kong as a financial center if we go further and further down that road of a divided world. Financial system or a real Cold War? I'm hoping we will not continue in this very harmful and dangerous direction. But if we were to, and I don't think it's impossible, I think the consequences would not be good for anybody, including Hong Kong, because Hong Kong's role is as a major global center of finance, not as a center of finance for one block or another block, but as a. Major global Center for the Whole World and. Hong Kong definitely would like a united world that's trading together, that is engaged in finance together. That is the best for Hong Kong and I. That, in my view, is the best for the world too. How? Gazing Tron oil. I also know that we have a nation state system in a world where we need global governance. This is a problem because it means that our international institutions and the one that I work. At at for the United Nations is too weak. We don't have the kind of global governance to enforce the treaty or to ensure that countries don't free ride or to stop wars and so on. So I'm very much aware of that. From my printer then you type in manga. I come down which Hong Kong order something?