Sunday, December 31, 2023
新年到
有朋自遠方來 不亦樂乎,從中國嫡嫡Laliita的建議,昨這裡開的是中國餃子瑪琪會,特別為chimaya和utama的來到,還有位特別的朋友brason,一位印度瑪琪,dharmapola, nirmana的丈夫。Utama and mayatiita 從台灣高雄來的,一個住屏東.一個新竹'chimaya 從德州過來的,印度小兄弟從南卡來的。utama 很喜歡kiirtan and prabha samgita, 我們從這裡打開話題,utama 和一位台灣瑪琪從事份艱鉅的工作,就是要把prabha samgiita 5018 首, 要澤成詩,写成譜,大家可以唱的唱譜,這是我的理解,我想他們美國瑪琪們都想錯了方向。
嫡嫡準備了藥饍湯,好吃得不得了,dhrmapola 帶了紫嬰桃派,rici and mayatiita 带來一盘意大利瓜做的,包好餃子,我們大家一起上樓靜坐廳,utama play kiirtan 半個鐘頭,靜坐半個鐘頭,然後下得樓來,rudranii已經把水煮的滾燙滾燙的,可以马上下水餃,utama and mayatiihta 還特別作一個水煎餃,大家愛得不得了。
We are nice to each other and why America didn't like it?
你提出的这个问题呢是典型的西方的个别人的思维,这个跟中国威胁没有任何关系。这里有个根本的是非曲直和原则问题,因为它涉及到的是中国的主权和领土完整的问题。关于有关军演的具体问题,你可以向军方去询问了解,但是我想告诉你,中国已经多次表明了坚决反对佩洛西串台的立场,并且指出如若成行将严重违反一个中国原则,严重侵犯中国主权和领土完整,中方必将采取坚决有力措施。应对一切后果,由美方牚担。”勿谓言之不预”。台湾是中国领土不可分割的一部分。中国军队在中国台湾岛附近海域开展军事演训活动,是维护国家主权和领土完整的必要和正当的举措,是反制台独分裂势力和外部势力干涉的必要和正当的举措。中方有关部门已经事先发布安全提醒和航行警告,中方有关做法符合国际法和国际惯例。如果任何人企图拿这件事情来作为证明中国构成威胁, 这样的一个证据的话呢,那只能说明他的内心是阴暗的。因为他不愿意他忽略性的选择性的去看待这个事情。他忽略了所有的一切,走到今天都是由佩洛西不顾中方反复严正交涉,不顾各方的。反复的劝告一意孤行所导致的。
你说中国与美国之间的关系紧张,是不是会影响中国与G7国家的关系,是吗?对中国来说,我们是希望本着 相互尊重合作共赢的精神同其他所有国家不管它是G7还是其他任何国家,还包括美国,我们都是希望本着平等相互尊重互利共赢的这样的一个原则来发展友好合作关系,我相信这才是各国人民的共同的期待,也是符合各方的共同利益的。但同时,在涉及到主权和领土完整的问题上,中国是没有任何妥协和退让余地的。所有跟中国保持和发展外交关系的国家,都必须要切实地恪守一个中国的原则和政策,这是毫无疑问的。中美之间围绕着台湾问题,出现了一些摩擦对G7和其他国家的关系会有什么影响?我看这要取决于G7国家他们怎么想,如果他们跟随美国,也就是说承认他们外交没有独立自主性,他们追随美国,他们没有自己的政策,他们也不在乎自己国家和自己国家人民的利益,不愿意把自己绑在美国的身上。那我想他们的人民肯定都不会答应。如果他们有。独立自主性。他们应该基于本国和本国人民的利益来出发,应该坚持同中国在一个中国政策问题上达成的共识,因为这是中国同他们关系的最重要的政治的前提和基础。那么继续在一个中国政策基础上继续发展友好合作关系,我相信有关国家的政府,它应该认识到这一点。负责任的政府都会从本国利益和人民的期待长远根本利益出发,来独立自主地作出选择。我想,实际上你所提出一个很好的问题,我们看今天的G7外长声明,大家也都在说这几个国家,他们明白事情经过是怎么样的吗?他们有自己的原则立场吗?他们这么做不会为自己赢得任何的尊敬和尊严。而且我刚才说了他们这个几个国家是极少数,不能代表国际社会,必须要认清到这一点。G7国家加在一起即便他们所有的人民都支持这几个外强的声明,它在世界人口也不到也就10%左右,更何况光美国,我们就知道了国内美国国内85%的人。可都是不赞同他的政策的。认为他行进在错误的方向上,还有英国其他的一些国家,所以他们这个几个外长声明。他能代表多少人呢?意愿呢?它能够,它甚至能代表本国的民意吗?I doubt。
你提到了一个很好的问题, 台湾人民的hearts and will,你有没有问问台湾当局他们执意安排或者邀请佩洛西访台,他们问过台湾人民的heart and will吗?
我知道佩洛西到了台湾岛以后, 也有台湾不少的民众。表示抗议。所以台湾当局现在所做的,他到底是把台湾人民的福祉利益和期待心声放在心上了没有? 那么对于中方来说,我刚才已经讲了,中方的有关举动是正义的, 是必要的, 是坚决的,我们的目的是要维护国家的主权和安全,符合国际法和国内法。我们这个行动是对挑衅者的形式,是针对那些台独分裂势力,只要不是支持台独的。我们这个有关的军事行动?跟他们是没有关系的,也不会造成任何的伤害。我们中方再次反复的重申,这是针对挑衅者的警示,是针对台独分裂活动和那些外部的干涉势力我想我说的已经非常清楚了。
七国集团外长的这份声明,让人有时空错乱的感觉。这几个国家的外长呢,显然还以为自己生活在120多年前的八国联军的时代。今天的世界早已不是帝国主义列强可以在中国大地上耀武扬威,为所欲为的世界。今天的中国, 也不是一百多年前, 任人欺负任人宰割的旧中国。他们的列强梦应该醒醒吧! 面对公然侵犯中国主权和领土完整的恶意挑衅,中方采取反制措施都是正当的,也必然是坚决的有力的。对此,世界看得非常清楚,上百个国家已经在第一时间发出了公正的声音,强调应该坚持一个中国原则, 支持中方维护自身主权和领土完整。如果这几个国家真的关心台海和平稳定,他们就应该早一点劝阻美方,不要对中国采取危险而鲁莽不负责任的挑衅。Perosi蹿访台湾之前他们装聋作哑, 默不作声,现在却跳出来对中国采取正义行动,横加指责他们的虚伪和丑恶的嘴脸暴露无遗。一个中国原则是七国同中国建交的重要政治基础,中方一贯坚决反对。建交国同台湾地区进行任何形式的官方往来。七国政府的立法机构负责人, 理应遵守政府承认和承诺的外交政策。如果有关国家政府对其议会违反本国外交政策的行为无所作为,放任自由只能证明其政治无能治理无效。在国际上背信弃义,在这一严肃的问题上玩弄文字游戏。或者试图偷梁换柱没有任何意义,也不会有任何效果。无论从历史还是现实看,以美国为首的七国集团成员都是侵略胁迫的形象代言人, 受到侵略或者胁迫至顶帽子,还是请七国集团的国家自己戴。
The statement from the Group of Seven (G7) foreign ministers gives one a sense of temporal and spatial confusion. The foreign ministers of these countries seem to believe they are living in the era of the Eight-Nation Alliance more than 120 years ago. Today's world is no longer one where imperial powers can swagger and act recklessly on Chinese soil as they please. Today's China is not the China of over a century ago, vulnerable to bullying and exploitation. It's time for them to wake up from their dreams of imperial dominance!
In the face of blatant violations of China's sovereignty and territorial integrity and malicious provocations, China's countermeasures are justified, resolute, and powerful. The world sees this very clearly, as hundreds of countries have promptly voiced their support for the One-China principle and emphasized the need to support China in defending its sovereignty and territorial integrity.
If these countries genuinely care about peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, they should advise the United States to refrain from dangerous and irresponsible provocations against China. Before Prosi's visit to Taiwan, they remained silent, but now they have emerged to take what they perceive as righteous action against China, exposing their hypocrisy and ugly faces. The One-China principle is an important political foundation for the seven countries to establish diplomatic relations with China, and China has consistently opposed any form of official exchanges between diplomatic allies and Taiwan.
The leaders of the legislative bodies of the G7 countries should adhere to the foreign policy recognized and committed to by their governments. If the governments of these countries do nothing when their parliaments violate their own foreign policies, allowing such freelancing, it only proves their political incompetence and ineffective governance.
Being unfaithful on the international stage and playing word games on such a serious issue is meaningless and will have no effect. Whether viewed from a historical or current perspective, the G7, led by the United States, represents the personification of aggression and coercion. Whether labeled as invaders or coercionists, it's up to the G7 countries to wear these hats themselves.
Chinese people likes peach. We need to live a nice life. We want to make more money. We need an environment to do business, dekvelping semiconductor business, and America government stop on all sides. It is you, America wants to bomb TSMC, not Taiwanese people. We spend 100 years to build a TSMC. Ameirca wants to destroy it, our bloody effort.
Saturday, December 30, 2023
Chandelling
There is a Margii living on the West Coast named Ermega. One day, she started channeling. However, this sister lacked wisdom. After channeling, she believed she was a guru, but unfortunately, she never became one. Many people can imitate any famous singer but never become a good singer. I would like to challenge those Margiis who believed in her: Did Ermega have any wisdom to lead you on the right path? She herself went down the wrong path, and you believed in her. It's like one pig following another pig. Some Margiis were really naive to believe in her.
When I shared this story about Lahirii Mahasay with a Margii sister by sharing a page on "Autobiography of a Yogii", she became very angry with Guru Lahirii Mahasay. He levitated from the second floor down to the first floor, where he has stayed, teaching his disciples ever since. When she desired her husband to fulfill her negative thoughts, this Margii sister read this paragraph and abruptly became furious. She started to abuse Lahirii Mahasay for a while. Having just arrived in America, witnessing this Margii sister's reaction to a saint, I realized there was a lot of sexual activity here in America.
There is a margii living in West Coast. Her name is Ermega. She started channelling. This sister was really stupid. She thought she was a guru.
Thursday, December 28, 2023
中国A股全都跌到股底
今年三月美国向中国购货, 中国货供不应求, 货柜船在洛杉矶长岛排长龙, 货柜进不来。在这种情形, 连摊贩都知道应该怎么做, 当然把卖价拉高嘛, 结果中国银行的行长不但没拉高卖价, 反而将人民币贬了14%, 那有这种银行行长?国家损失大了, 现在美国要跟中国脱钩, 跟他们的企业规定, 要在美国做生意, 就不能跟中国做生意, 不准美国的产业在中国生产, 中国A股全都跌到股底.
Tuesday, December 26, 2023
Chinese Economic and Glorbal finance
我们必须要从美国谈起,谈的是从国际经贸,最后专注到我对大陆的政策的一些见议, 那如果要谈国际经贸的话,你不能够避开一个很严重的事实,就是即使在二十世纪的今天,美国还是远远全世界的主导者。狗摇尾巴, 不会是狗尾巴摇狗, 在这个国际经贸的议题?美国就是那只狗,那中国呢?也是也算是一只大狗,体量蛮大的狗。但是呢,像是台湾啦,韩国, 甚至欧盟啊,现在感觉上都像是尾巴了,都是被人家摇来摇去的。所以呢,我们要谈的话,就必须要从那只狗, 最大的狗身上开始谈起。美国在过去这两年多,原本是三年前遭遇了一个非常严重的通胀危机, 十年来最严重的一次危机。但是呢,它很成功地缓解了比五十年前缓解的还要成功的。原因是五十年前FED没有经验,当时的主要竞争对手,也就是其他的先进工业国家,是欧洲,还有日本,他们呢?被美国切断了,美国自己单方面的放弃了系统, 就是原本半金准位的系统, 美元锁定黄金,然后其他的货币锁定美元, 就是战后秩序的基础,二十几年的基础。1970年后, 因为越战造成了庞大的财政赤字。尼克森决定,要无限印钞,要无限印钞就不能够再继续锁定黄金,放弃金本位。美国就放弃半金本位的规则,然后无限印钞, 无限印钞以后, 通胀不断恶化, 1980年到达高峰,当时的通胀最高曾经达到14%,这是美国的问题。这里面有三个因素,第一个是美国自己开始无限印钞,第二个是当欧洲, 日本跟美国抱怨,美国跟他们说,你们也跟着我印钞, 反正我印你也印, 这样还是公平的,对不对?结果这样一来, 就变成全球都有通胀,而不是只有美国一国的通胀,所以事情就很快的恶化。第三个美国遇到了两次能源危机,所以有两次的把通胀给推高了,这一次的通胀呢?其实美国已经在无限印钞,它的规模比五十年前要大两个数量级。尤其是在2008年之后,FED开始有一个金融创新, 货币政策的创新,叫做量化宽松,他们一共宽松了8.9万亿。比五十年前高了两个数量级,那照理说FED造成的通胀压力应该也高两个数量,但是,事实上没有, 没有的原因,是因为刚好21世纪初的头十年,全世界尤其是亚洲出口国家, 就是中国香港台湾南韩日本,甚至泰国马来西亚, 新加坡等等,他们的外汇储备总额, 从2000年的一万亿, 增加到2010年的十一万亿,那为什么这些国家这么傻,他们把他们自己辛苦劳动所获得的美元, 重新买国债, 主要是美国的国债,然后导致美国的国债, 它的合理价位应该是它的利息, 合理的息利息应该是5%,6%, 到最后被推到低於2%, 三年前最低的时候到1.5%,每年利息差3.5%, 美国国债三十万亿,每年省3.5%或者是4%, 三十万亿的国债, 一年省多少钱?一年就省一万多亿(1,240 trillion),二十年就是多少,对不对?明面上就是二十五万亿,但是你再加上债上滚债的话呢,事实上就是省了三十多万亿。刚好, 那十年增加的那十万亿外汇储备呢?对美国偷偷用来填充它的财政赤字,消化美国多印的那九万亿美元,那为什么亚洲国家会这么傻?他们并不是傻。而是因为上一次上一轮的美国的对外收割, 美国的金融殖民帝国对外收割是1997年跟1998年, 它针对的对象刚好就是亚洲的这些出口国家, 死的最惨的就是南韩,印尼,泰国,马来西亚。他们当时的手法, Soros在1992年先对英国尝试的那个版本,也就是你的美债。你的企业, 不是国家去跟美国借钱,而是你的企业,因为美元是国际储备货币,所以它的利率特别低,流通性特别高,特别容易能借到大笔的钱,他们看上了那些低利率的债,就去举债,刚好九零年代是一个冷战后的红利时代,全球化刚刚开始,这些国家,都有繁盛的经济,主要由美国的市场, 美国的公司来投资,美国给你技术, 给你产能,然后你的产能产生, 生产出去以后,再外销到美国市场,那这么一来,他们就拼命的顺便跟美国银行借贷,结果到了1997年,美国来了一个双管齐下, 一方面银行不再给你rollover, 银行在到期以后不借钱给你,不让你借新债来还旧债, 然后另外一方面, Soros 们, 这些对冲基金来攻击你的货币。那这个时候呢?这些国内的企业拿自己的资产; 比如说韩国的的企业三星,他的资产,手上的现金都是韩币,他要还美债,必须要把韩币拿去跟他们的中央银行换成美元来还美元债。所以在这个能够撑得下去的一个前提,就是你中央银行的外汇储备要有超过你国内企业所欠的美元债,Soros之所以能够确定他能赢, 他做了一个简单的算术,他发现你们这些企业,这两年要还的美元债加起来超过了你们中央银行的外汇储备。所以我只要一直这样盯下去(在市场上买美元, 一直买, 直到中央银行没有美元, 市场上也没有美元, 三星没有美元, 还不出美债),你总会到了还不出来的时候,还不出来的时候要怎么办?就要跟IMF谈, 南韩请问IMF,来拯救三星, IMF说好,我们坐下来谈, 这么一谈,就谈了六个多月。不是因为真的有事情要谈,而是因为他们开的条件, 韩国人不接受他们所开的条件, 他们的开的条件是”韩国所有的优质资产要完全对美国的金融资本开放”, 意思就是三星要变成美国企业。韩国人不愿意, 拖了六个月,在这六个月, 他们想尽办法到处去借美元,变卖黄金等等, 到了六个月之后,终于再也挤不出一美元出来了,他们被迫跟IMF订城下之盟,向IMF完全投降, 三星从那个时候开始, 就变成美国人的企业, 那台湾呢?当时并没有经过这一段,为什么?因为台湾台积电早就是美国企业,不需要逼台湾,台湾就直接投降了, 香港,那个时候差一点也走上了这条道路, 朱融基出手,跟Soros对打, Soros败, 大 亏, 但是不论怎么样的敲诈,这样的压榨成功了, 事后大家都学乖了,学乖了以后。大家知道要能够抵抗这种攻击你的货币的时候?第一个条件就是你的外汇要够多, 所以大家才会在十年之内把外汇增加了十倍,那刚好增加的就是十万亿美元,刚好就被美国人立刻拿来做最大的利用。最大的利用就是拿来做财政的支出,美联储就多印了九万亿,财政赤字国债就增加了十几万亿。
我之所以谈这个。是要先让大家知道。过去这三年的通胀危机呢?从1970年到现在, 其实美国搜割韭菜已经是第五轮, 1979年是第三轮,而且,每过一轮, 美国就扩大规模,然后效率提升,然后往往都是针对上一次经验教训。受害国做出的对应措施。那些对应措施,刚好就可以被他运用来在下一次进行的压榨。1997年大家学乖了,就是要提升外汇吗?十几万亿的外汇怎么办?只好去买美元资产,因为他是美元, 是外币,对不对?你买美元的资产到最后是什么样子?2008年的那次搜刮。就刚好反过来,既然你累积了十几万亿美元外汇,而且被迫买美国国内美元资产,上一次十年前美国用低价掠夺亚洲的优质资产, 2008年美国是把国内的劣质资产以高价卖给你, 你想想看,2008年次贷危机,就是美国国内的劣质金融资产卖到全世界,那这一次呢?终于。过去这三年,其实是五十年美国经过五轮的金融压榨又回到了第一轮,第一轮就是1970年代的那次通胀危机,而且他们因为有了上一次的经验。这一次呢,他们对欧盟对日本的政治与经济主导权,要强的多, 你在1970年代的时候,欧洲国家还有日本,他们还有他们的财政政策,货币政策,他们还有一些独立性,他们在1971年抗议之后?不得不跟着美国发债, 不得不跟着美国印钞, 结果呢?全球通胀, 滞胀之后呢?他们觉得这样不对了。他们, 现在看起来是完全是美国的殖民地,但是你要知道,1980年美国为什么经过十年之后他的滞胀危机会才到达最高峰, 原因是在1980年, 日本还有欧洲国家开始弃用美元,你如果看美元占当时国际外汇储备的比率, 从85%一下就掉到60%,一年之内就掉了20%,为什么他们这些国家忽然明白,被美国这样剥削,你即使自己跟着印钞票,只要美元仍然是国际外汇储备所通用的储备货币。你印钞票。吃亏的一定是你吃亏多, 占便宜的只占得少。所以呢,他们到最后终于理解到。根本是在于这个国际储备货币的地位,而他们从1980年开始互相持有对方的货币来作为储备货币。当时呢,1980年代德国马克跟日元跟英镑都是那个时候。一下子他们的各国中央银行的储备占有率一下就上去了, 你跟他当1980年代四十多年前他们的那个脊梁骨对比一下就发现了, 三年前。完全没有这回事,就是从2021年初到2022年中, 美国的通胀危机最严重的时候?欧元一下子对美元, 贬值了20%几。人民币对美元贬值了14%。当时是什么情况?当时是新冠,而且美国又多印了三万亿的紧急刺激财政,当时美国国内大家蹲在家里面,每一个人都在买电子产品,买电脑买平板电脑买新的手机买,买运动脚踏车,这些东西都必须要从中国进口,在洛杉矶的外海有100条超大型货柜的货轮, 每一个货柜轮上面都有两万四千个货柜箱,在排队, 没办法进来。在这种环境下。人家抢着要买你的东西。不管你的价钱多少都买, 中国中央银行反而将人民币贬值40%, 多么的乖,多大的自我牺牲精神。(中国央行在过去面对中美贸易结构问题的时候,采取错误的金融政策),就是上一任的央行行长(易纲), 他今年年初的时候被换掉了,现任是潘功胜, 其实易纲犯了三个很大的错误,最小的错误是: 没有想到这个通货膨胀,美国印钞,会导致美国长期国债利率的上升,从1.5% 增加到5%左右,导致我们今年年初的时候,四月的时候有谈过Silicon Valley Bank, 就是因为这样损失了一千亿美元,Silicon Valley Bank 破产, 现在统计的最新的统计,美国所有的正规银行因为持有美国长期国债。总共在过去这一年总共损失一万亿美元。这是所有的亚洲国家的总外汇储备,已经提升到11,12万亿左右,这个比美国正规银行的储备还要高两三倍。那你可以想象。这些中央银行损失的数额是不是也应该比美国正规银行高两三倍?这些所有的亚洲央行的外汇储备里面,中国占1/4,那中国赔的是不是就应该最多,对不对?这里面几千亿美元的损失,这些是浮亏了就是,即使在会计上面账目上都不会看出来的,因为它实际上的损失, 是你这些三十年的债券,你现在拿到三十年之后拿回本钱之后,本钱只值现在的1/10就是这样的损失,所以是完全是隐性的,中国前任人民银行行长易纲, 造成这个几千亿美元的损失, 这是他所犯三个错误里面最小的部分, 第二个比较严重的错误是明明可以让美国有一个很严重的通胀危机,这样一来他自顾不暇,就不会去挑起台海战争,不会去挑起俄乌战争。但是呢?他乖乖的违反了他自己表面上相信的美国货币理论,就是美国经济系所讲的货币理论。中国的货品,中国的出口货品在供不应求的时候,你的货币为什么要贬值?没有一个国家经济理论会跟你讲应该贬值,美联储打电话,美联储叫你贬值,就乖乖的贬值。所以我现在都把人民银行叫成”美联储北京分行”, 这是他犯的第二个错误。第三个错误。就是一年多前, 去年年初的时候,俄乌战争一开始。很明显的俄国的中央银行想要跟中国的人民银行联手推出一个取代美元的”新国际储备货币”, 结果被他搞黄了。这是釜底抽薪, 解决美国金融收刮得的办法, 这个所牵涉到的我刚刚讲一刚所犯的第一个错误代价是几千亿美元。他所犯的第二个错误,让美国这一次很轻松的摆脱金融危机, 这个可能代价是几万亿美元,但是,他把取代美元作为新国际储备货币这件事情搞黄了。这个代价,我认为是十万亿几十万亿美元的代价。美国这二十年的金融搜刮, 二三十万亿,你让美国能够活到下一轮,再做下一轮的搜刮,至少是十万亿的出入。而这个钱呢?是谁出的?中国人, 第三世界,当然欧盟也出,台湾也出, 台湾现在的通货膨胀,不高,也是因为美联储要把通货膨胀外销出口,所以呢,台湾只拿到通货膨胀,而没有到, GDP倒退收缩的地步, 像韩国或者越南,不过这不是因为美国人仁慈。台湾之所以过去两年在这种中型的被放牧的经济体,因为美国的这个金融帝国,它们是周期性的,大约每十年收刮一次,我的一个类比呢,就是他把这些靠美国,原本靠美国技术还有那个体制,还有它的市场,所开发出来的新兴工业国?其实是一种放牧的现象,就是放牛放羊。那个他拿这些市场,拿这些技术,拿这些产能,当做饲料给你吃,你吃饱了以后?美国每隔十年他来收割,宰杀一次,台湾这一次的宰杀,结果过的相当不错,跟其他的欧盟,你看,现在德国已经连续四个季经济衰退错,英国报告,今年的经济成长的将近1%, 大家不要忘了,这是因为他年初的时候改了GDP的算法,所以找出了2%的GDP,这个跟他实际成长没有任何一点关系, 英国的GDP成长是他的国家统计局制造出来的。不是他的经济发出展来的。那韩国的经济今年已经注定是要衰退了。越南的出口跟工业产值都要下降15%,所以你说台湾为什么会一枝独秀?一枝独秀的原因很简单就是ECFA,一般的台湾人不晓得ecfa给台湾占的便宜有多大?台湾通过ecfa对大陆的出口。占台湾GDP, 不是占总出口, 占台湾GDP总产能的24%。台湾从大陆的进口, 只占台湾GDP的11%,台湾GDP凭空多出来13%,这个是台湾所得的顺差。而且这里不只是大陆人民买单,台湾人民也跟着一起买单。不过这两年回去台湾了一个很大的感叹就是, 凡是大陆很强的这些新兴工业,像光伏,电动车, 台湾都是远远的落后,因为你都不让大陆进口。它不但比大陆贵四到五倍。举个例子,我在深圳的时候,有研究一下当地的那些电动车,还有电动自行车的价钱,我回到台湾来再看完全一样的电动自行车电动车。真的就是大陆价钱的四倍,台湾换电池的电动车,电动摩托车经营模式完全都是美国式的,它的定价也都是美国式的。就是比大陆要高五到十倍的那个价钱。台湾的用户自己都抱怨, 比骑油车还要贵一倍。哪有这样子的?这种插电的怎么会比烧油的还要贵一倍?这就是因为它定价过高,为什么定价过高?因为没有竞争。为什么没有竞争?因为你把大陆的供应商排除在外。大陆的电商,台湾的电商根本跟大陆没得比,, 没有电商就没有竞争力,台湾不只是比不上大陆, 连美国消费者的那个便利跟权益都比不上,这些ECFA不公平的现象,台湾对大陆的占便宜。吃亏的不只是大陆的厂商。吃亏的,有很大一部分也是台湾本身的消费者。现在的中美脱钩。美国就是因为对大陆没办法轻松的宰杀,你一次别人向大陆这种体量对从别人那边应该是拿到五万亿六万亿,结果呢?只从人民银行那边拿到几千亿这种零头他觉得不划算。所以呢,他要把他的饲料,他的饲料是什么?技术,中美为什么科技脱钩?为什么学术界不让他中国加入交流,为什么他会把在美国的华裔科学家,技术或者关起来。弄得风声鹤唳,大家不敢在跟中方合作为什么?就是为了要把技术拿走。下一步就是市场拿走, 现在中国的电动车。他的企业已经变成世界第一了。中国今年会变成全世界汽车出口第一大国,他去年超过德国,今年会超过日本。但是你在美国一辆中国制的电动车都看不到。所以美国的电动车就硬是比中国贵一倍,所以现在美国的福特在这个月刚刚宣布因为电动车卖不动,所以他把投资电动车的投资要大幅的砍, 腰斩,为什么卖不动。因为太贵了嘛! 为什么太贵?因为你不让大陆的电动车进口嘛,所以基本上是跟台湾一样,台湾的电动车是不是也比大陆贵一倍多?对不对?贵一倍, 那接受率当然就不行了。大陆的电动车已经比牛车还要便宜了,在美国呢?如果看到路上有人开Tesla还是一种奢侈品,对不对?年收入二十万美元以上的家庭才能够玩得起的大玩具。那台湾的话就更离谱,在台湾的话基本上。Tesla跟法拉利一样的罕见?对不对?偶尔看到一辆。就当做奢侈品,你说这是正常的经济发展的常态吗?不是,这是在剥削消费者为代价,让自己国家的整个工业水平落后,落后为代价。来图利自己的国内的官商勾结的利益集团,所以美国喂的饲料, 技术, 市场, 最后一个投资。美国现在已经撕下他的面具了,中国根本就别想拿到美国的投资,而且呢,还在撤资。从大陆大幅的撤资,那毕竟你市场已经都没办法进了,那美国厂商还跟你投资个什么, 对不对?为什么他想办法投资?连港股也跌, 很简单嘛,因为撤资, 因为中美在脱钩,所以那些外国的资金在撤掉。现在正在看到香港大规模的服务业向新加坡移转。这个是有意的,因为香港是中国的一部分,所以英美主控的金融业, 服务业必须要离开香港,从政治, 政治要求那么彻底。所以这些国际资本撤离以后。泡沫自然就吹不起来。美国现在的股市又上去了, 你要看美国恢复得有多好,你只要看他这个泡沫是不是又重新起来。三年前他有”Everything bubble”,每一样都是泡沫,当时最泡沫是什么东西?就是加密货币, 那个时候到六万美金。现在big coin跌到一万美金之后,现在又回到四万多,你光看这一点就知道美国现在的经济态势好的不得了,在所有的工业国家里面好的不得了。为什么?因为。欧盟跟中国跟日本跟韩国跟台湾跟越南, 这些国家都是让他尽情的宰割, 英国也是。这三年美国拿到的十几万亿美元。然后呢?最惨的,我觉得是德国了。为什么德国损失的不只是钱,不止是资产,不只是资金,它损失的是真正的工业产能。因为他自己把自己的廉价能源来源给割断了。大家一直以为德国最大的工业是汽车工业,其实汽车工业是他们一整套的工业体系里面一个很下游的,它真正的核心是化工,第二次工业革命,德国领先全球的就是化工。化工最需要的是什么?廉价的天然气。所以德国的化工工业基本上一夕之间就完蛋了,全部都转移到美国去了。美国在2001年的时候。他的每个月的工厂建设投资是二十亿美元,每个月二十亿美元,到2020年, 上一次, 美国大选的时候提高到每个月六十亿美元,这就是搞了四年。美国化的的结果一切工业产业化的结果。但是今年六月这个数字已经提升到每个月160亿。现在这个月最新的数字是190亿,从20亿到190亿。搞了二十年, 从二十亿到六十亿,包括那四年,然后呢,过去这三年呢,一下子就提升到190亿,大家可以想象到中美脱钩,还有从欧盟吸血。虚实体产业的政策有多么的成功,因为工厂是用来干什么的?用来实体产能的,为什么会大家拼命建工厂?因为这些美国的厂商, 只要心里还想着美国的市场,你就必须要从中国撤资,因为中国出口不能够再进美国了,所以你就必须要在美国自己产。同样的,欧盟现在失去了廉价的能源,然后呢?他又因为,货币贬值的关系。在最不应该贬值的时候贬值了20%,导致欧盟的通胀。比美国还要严重。乱印钞票是美国, 结果两年前开始到现在,一开始的时候是美国的通胀高于欧盟,结果两年前开始因为货币汇率变动的关系,变成欧盟的通胀高于美国,一直到现在,美国的通胀已经压到3.7。欧盟的通胀还是远远高于美国。那这就导致什么? 导致, 美国的这些, 现在美国最大的产业是什么?金融产业,就是那些,尤其是影子银行所谓的影子银行是什么? 保险公司, 对冲基金, 还有其他各式各样的私募基金。他们即使在我刚刚讲到美国的这些资产的泡沫已经重新吹起之后,还觉得不过瘾,还要再把它重新吹到三年前的最高点。他跑去跟美联储主席要求要降息,原本美联储的计划是还要再升格,然后才考虑是不是要降息, 结果呢?一个礼拜之前FED最新的会议,准备要提早降息。FED 已经承诺明年会降息三次,事实上,市场已经预估会降息四次。FED只承诺了三次。这是什么?就是对金融业投降。重新的要把泡沫最大化,那今天它还可以这样干,为什么?因为现在欧盟, 他的通胀比美国还要高。所以虽然欧盟的经济完全没有复苏。德国的经济还在衰退之中,然后其他国家也都是成长率零点几。在这种情形下呢,它反而没办法降息。欧元银行反而没办法降息,所以。这样一来呢,美国在景气下来,你想想看又是怎么样子,又是更多的资金跟产能向美国转移,所以美国现在真的就是用英文讲就是”sitting on the driver seat” 一凡风顺, 为什么? 过去这三年其他的国家实在太乖了, 除了俄国之外, 没有一个国家的中央银行有脊梁骨, 全都是无脊椎动物。在这种情况下。中国的对策是。第一个中国一定已经要损失来自美国的直接技术转移的管道。光靠自己,好处是除了半导体之外,其他都没有什么太大的问题。第二个是市场, 电动车不用想要卖到美国去了,这是想都不用想,你可以跟欧洲车厂合作,然后在东盟抢日韩汽车的市场份。事实上汽车一直是制造业里面。营收最高的,制造业里面哪一个营收最高?汽车。那中国现在经济还是一副很衰败的样子?为什么上海一大堆有钱人往新加坡跑?他们现在不敢逃到美国去,也不敢逃到欧洲去了,因为,那些俄国的富豪被扣钱了。被关起来,资产被扣押, 前景实在是太可怕了。但是呢,现在大家就很喜欢往新加坡去闯。原因就是中美脱钩, 市场跑掉了,而且呢,国际资金也跑掉了,(中东进了中国A股市场) 你不能够再利用美元放牧, 美元以前是美国所谓的饲料里面这些外销型的国家损失的饲料里面, 这些都是待宰的猪牛羊的,但是呢,还没有被宰之前呢,你总是要有一段成长期嘛,对不对? 财富要累积, 你的劳动要有环境。去贡献这些财富累积,所以呢,你吃的就是技术, 市场,还有美元。美元就是资金, 中国拿不到廉价资金。廉价资金就是美国以前多印这些。它是以一方面金融借贷,另一方面是以进出口的逆差, 来把这些资金转移给你。所以你有很多的廉价资金来做投资,那这样。结果呢,就是可以粗放的增长,然后呢,十年被人家宰一次。那宰一次一年两年,然后呢,再复苏,这里面八年九年,这些被宰的最早是日本,后来四小龙。然后是东南亚,然后接下去是中国。这里面来的最晚的是中国,成长最快的也是中国, 他所习惯的成长环境。也是最粗放最容易的。为什么?因为它的治理效率也最高,它的体量也最大。所以呢,越容易造成规模效应, 经济规模效应。我们现在中美脱钩, 问题是美国还是全世界最大的那只狗,它真的要咬起来的时候,任何一个国家都是可以被它当尾巴一样来咬。那美国搞这个中美脱钩之后呢?不论如何,中国一定会有逆风。你事实上看看中国目前所达到的GDP,他的那个发展水平,他现在在竞争的。已经成功成为世界第一的是什么样的企业?电动车。短短十年之前还是高科技的像徵。以前掌管汽车先进技术的是哪些国家,德国日本, 这都是世界一流的工业国家,那现在变成中国。中国也许在名目上它的GDP人民币不是很高,但是呢,它的工业层次其实已经是威胁着要进入第一梯队了,他只不过是来的晚,所以呢,还来不及补齐全部的。有一些东西真的是,他对资金, 还有技术累积,要求的特别高。然后呢,中国本身体质又有一些缺陷。所以呢,到现在还没有普及。然后你再看看中国的这个社会制度,中国的社会福利。事实上,GDT是可以跟很多隐性的生活水平标准来互换的,你可以牺牲别的东西。降低整体的生活标准, 来追求GDP, 像什么环境保护对不对?你如果愿意破坏环境,你的GDP就会成长的快一点。保护环境是要花钱的。摧毁环境是可以赚钱的对不对?还有什么贫富差距,如果这个社会能够贫富差距扩张的话。财团就有更多的资金做来做投资。追求更高的利润, 利润率回报率,比如说。韩国就是,美国也是这样搞定,这里的前提是你贫富差距大了之后呢,社会要稳定。美国呢?之所以能够贫富差距越搞越大呢?原因是他可以对外搜刮。在对外搜刮的过程中,自己的底层民众也可以收到一杯羹。所以呢,它的贫富差距并没有他那种社会达尔文政策所应该造成的那么大, 像中国这种很在乎贫富差距的。习近平,甚至花了十年来扶贫专门扶贫,针对性的。这个是要花钱呢,不会创造GDP,大家诚实来讲,这是要花钱的。你要把很优秀的干部。投到乡村去没错, 盯着几个贫户,把他们从贫困扶起来,不只是要花钱,你还要投入一流的人力资源。这些人力资源你可以去管企业, 同样一个人管十户的一个小村子,绝对是有资格去管几千万或者几亿的那些几百个企业的,对不对?但是呢,你就是要这样的。还有什么东西?还有社会里面只要有很严重的扭曲。往往扭曲的原因就是因为方便GDP成长。像是什么?中国的房地产政策,房地产所有制不合理。就是因为在粗放生长的时候方便提高,快速提高GDP,所以才会导致今天的结果, 2008年的时候,多印了四万亿,事实上,四万亿本身就是一个错误的数字,四万亿只是当时中央政府出的钱,放宽审查,容许地方随意发无限发债,地方在那两年2008年跟2009年一共发了至少五万五千亿,所以中国在那一波。所浪费的资金至少是九万五千亿, 房地产这个烂摊子一发不可收拾,就是从那时候开始的。中国的另外一个出发。就是学习美国的。这种公关。美国的企业要资金,要骗钱就是先随便发一个公关稿,说我这个这个呢,能够赚几万亿,你们只要拿几个亿来给我,我十年之内就会赚几万亿,像什么核聚变。量子计算。他们的资本。资本市场可以这样的随意浪费,为什么?因为他们主导了全球的金融体系。这些钱最后还是进了美国的金融大亨的口袋。对不对?所以你中国去学人家这个干什么?到最后还是进了国际金融巨头的口袋,这可不是留在中国,你就算进的口袋是中国的,中国籍的。金融巨头到最后他一样是把资产转移到国外。人跑到新加坡去。恒大。那么大的浪费,而且是已经盯上了,帮帮那个泡沫泄气结果呢,没有想到他会做资产转移, 你说这个有多么的笨拙
Monday, December 25, 2023
中国经济
美国财政部公布十月的国际资本的流动报告,日本是在九月起,十月是有增持美债,中国方面是连着七个月都在抛售美债,如果是截止到最新的数据,也就是十月份?中国美债的持仓较去年十二月是减少了975亿美元,如果从五月到九月整个来算下来的话,每个月减持都是超过了一百亿美元,包括中国国家外汇管理局上个月的公布说, 黄金储备是连续12个月的增长,看看中国持有美元资产图, 中国减持美债这个说法其实是非常不准确的。总持仓的金额减少,并不一定是减持造成的,很有可能是国债价格下跌。第二个说法,单纯的用美债二字也不严谨,因为美国财政部公布的数据只跟国债有关,不包括其他类型的债券。其实中国持有的美元资产,他是有很多种类型的。第三个说法,相比起企业债,中国有买美国机构债券,例如房地产抵押债券的超级大买家。就以上这三点,为什么那么多人都在说中国减持美债?而这种说法我们其实不应该, 这个讲法也不能说错了,因为我们大家讲到美债, 第一个想到的是美国联邦政府公债,不会想到美国的企业跟其他机构的债券,这是大家用习惯。所以说中国减持美债也对, 本来差不多一兆多,后来杀掉了九千,现在大概八千左右亿美元。所以砍掉不少的美债, 现在还剩7700多。再看美债, 砍的时机不对,现在是美债价格最低的时候,你现在砍掉了就是赔钱。在去年二月份,就应该赶快砍,如果砍的话现在再买回来是赚的。所以现在应该买美债而不是卖美债,所以表示说中国现在卖美债是政治因素,而不是经济上的考虑。现在卖是赔的,但是也有可能他不是真的卖,他是左手卖右手卖, 这什么意思呢?就左手卖掉美国政府公债,右手买进美国企业债券。或者是用信托的方式来持有,比如说透过瑞士, 透过比利时的信托账户来买进这个美国的政府公债,也就是事实上并没有卖掉,而只是表面上, 就是由美国银行记账保管的,美国政府就只能没收在美国那一部分, 本来可以没收九千亿,现在只能没收七千亿,这是地缘政治的风险。好,资产移转不让美国政府在第一个时间可以没收的。在比利时信托账户里面的美国政府公债, 美国政府要没收, 那要看比利时同不同意。查看瑞士银行同不同意,所以如果说基于政治上的原因,把它移传到别的户头去,而不是摆在美国财政部监管的户头。现在七千多亿都摆在美国财政部监管底下,有政治上是有风险的,这是swap,把美债卖掉,去买机构债,或者把它变成比利时所持有的美债,这有什么好处?因为我现在卖是赔的,那我虽然只是表面上卖掉,可是又买回其他的债券,那未来债券价格上涨的时候就不会买到最低点。每一年就要损失2.5趴,十年就损失25趴。你这样算就砍掉1/4的价格就不见。所以我是觉得中国减持美债这个说法,是通俗用于,但是不能把它解释解释成说所有的美国债券, 减少了,而是只有减少美国政府公债,但是可能换成其他的方式来持有,这样就对了。
通货膨胀3%很低,因为现在的迹象很有可能跟五十年前的迹象非常相似。而五十年前美国的通膨高达14%,最近短短两周时间,鲍威尔的态度出现180度的大转弯。12月1号他还警告市场说,你们不要猜测什么时候我们会宽松。但12月13号货币政策新闻发布会上,他就开始声称说我们已经开始讨论降息。这简直是送给拜登的圣诞大礼物。这跟拜登连任加了一剂强行针。这种突然的转变让很多人引起了警觉,甚至有人就拿出了1976年美联储的梦魇来警告,1976年当时的美联储主席伯恩斯,他领导的美联储进行了两年的大幅度加息,他说确信这个通胀率已经下降到足够的水平了。他就开始要暂停加息,所以说这一种政策突然的转变导致一发不可收拾。此后的四年间,美国的通胀率一度达到令人难以置信的14.5%,您觉得FED或者说鲍威尔的态度突然发生了大转变, 如果美联储重蹈,我们就说近五十年来的覆辙的话, 会发生什么事?对美国经济甚至是对全球经济会带来哪一些的冲击和影响? 1976年就是卡特击败福特当选美国总统那一年,因为尼克森的时候有最重要的两件大事,第一个就是他结束越战, 结束越战的时候,在越战之前,他为了打越战,把美国金本位给打掉了,就是尼克森宣布美元跟黄金脱钩,不再拿美元兑换黄金,那个时候的美国的经济又困难又复杂,那1976年有很重要的事情, 苹果电脑公司在车库里面诞生,四人帮挎台, 毛泽东过世,唐山大地震,所以导致在经济上,因为1976年的美国,当时辩论,经济政策, 经济政策要以利率为主呢?还是以货币供给量为主。这两个不同的概念, 我跟大家解释一下,什么叫货币供给量?第一个有狭义的货币供给量,就是现钞,加上活期银行的活期存款,这两个数量, 或者加上,这个大概以这两个为主体,然后加上支票存款这三种存款加起来的总数,我们称作货币供给量啊。这个狭义的货币供给量,那如果再加上一年期以内的定期存款,那这个叫做广义的货币供给量。现在我们在讲这个都不太去区分了,主要讲广义的货币供给量。就是说货币政策要控制货币供给量的增加率,还是要控制利息的水平,一直都是经济学上一个难题, 是1970年代一个辩论的重要的议题,那一年里面, 因为疏忽了控制货币供给量。频频的操作利率的结果呢,发现到货币供给量失控,失控就会造成,后来很麻烦的一些经济问题,特别是通货膨胀,那因为在1970年代, Milton Friedman发表很重要的货币经济学的论文,他认为物价只跟货币供给量有关,跟利率无关。现在也普遍的被所有的经济学家在各种实证的证据里面认可。所以当年度美国的利率下降,可是问题不在利率下降问题, 而在货币供给量失控,当时造成通货膨胀的原因。现在谈这个问题不太对,因为目前的美国联邦准备银行货币供给量控制的还不差。所以我们只看到利息往上拉抬,然后造成通货膨胀下降,事实上同时也控制了货币供给量。现在拜登逼鲍威尔降息,应该不是拜登逼鲍威尔降息了,而是已经升息多了。超出美国的经济增长率太远了, 有一个标准的经济学模型,就是说你的经济成长率多少,你的利息,就是你的经济成长率加上通货膨胀率,比如说现在美国的经济成长率是2%,通货膨胀率3%, 合理的利率的水平,就是5%,但这个5%是一班贷款人取得的利息,不是联邦准备银行取得的利息。联邦准备银行取得利息现在大概4.5%,可是一般所谓的prime rate就是主要贷款人的利率,现在美国人信用非常好的,信用贷款的利息大概都在6%到7%,6%到7%已经超出了美国的长期的基本利率。就是我刚才讲的2%经济成长率加上3%通货膨胀率, 就是5%左右,现在已经超出了2%了,那这2% 就是可能未来要降息的空间。简单讲是在理论模型上是这样推估的,明年如果降息两码,应该不会重现五十年前的梦嬮。五十年前美国经济是很麻烦的,那时候是很麻烦, 跟现在的状况不一样。当年美国非常依赖石油进口,美国是到了1990年以后才开始变成石油的出口国。那之前那个时候美国要依赖中东很严重,所以季辛吉跑到沙特去跟他签秘密协议, 说以后你们只能收美元买石油, 我给你保证你的安全, 同时你买的美元, 在美国要买什么东西我都没有限制,你爱买什么就买什么,两个条件底下沙特同意了,那阿拉伯产油国家也同意了,那现在没有这种状况啊。所以我觉得。美国现在跟俄罗斯一样,有石油又有粮食,令人羡慕,所以说不会有梦嬮。
中国经济,错码包括A股,大家看到也觉得跌出了心理预期的一个这个点数。
中东主权基金却在这个时候反其道而行之。这个还只是非常非常小的一部分,中东主权基金多次出手布局中国资产,包括蔚来汽车,卡达投资局,阿布扎比投资局, 科威特投资局等等,都是非常青睐于中国A股。中东土豪们却在这个时候开始炒A股,我们错过了吗?没有错过, 现在是A股的低档,你说中东的土豪, 现在他不拿钱来买, 他什么时候买, 这个中国的这个股票会下跌哈,是一个经济环境加上地缘政治的关系。经济环境就是美国利息必须维持高档,就是美国压抑通货膨胀,可是中国为了解决房地产以及拉抬经济。中国必须降息,所以变成说人民币的利息跟美元的利息的利差变得非常大,是这么一个大的利差的时候,人们就不想要持有人民币的资产,尤其是人民币的股票。所以卖人民币的股票去换美金。那一块美金人民币汇率就会下跌。人民币汇率下跌的话,美军呢?美军就会去买其他的美元的资产,嗯啊,所以是这样操作,结果A股就会跌吗?啊,这是美国的投资者的操作手法,或者国际投资者的操作手法。这么操作,那你如果是大陆的投资者,一看,哎呀我的外国朋友在卖股票,你会去捡吗?你不会,你要抢先一步可以卖,所以A股就会跌破啊,他应该有的基本价值,所以A股现在是很便宜。那好了,那中国大陆都还在观望第二个因素就是地缘政治啊。到底是美国跟中国之间的地缘政治,会不会使得跑出去的国外的资金回不来?尤其是主要是欧美的资金会不会走了以后回不来啊,包括日本的资金,因为我们想象中呃欧美日他们三个一定是结合在一起在搞地缘政治的吗?是的,那他们为什么不回?哎,他们会担心说,诶,中国会不会没收我的股票啊?或者中国会不会打压我啊?虽然中国讲说我要开大门做大事,不会有这些事情,他们还不相信呢,他们觉得美国如果加大筹码打压中国,然后中国反击就会找他们麻烦。国外的资金要回来的比例就相对的降低。就比如说利息因素也稳定了。再那因为我跌到一定的水平了,再回来买A股,他会有地缘政治的担忧虑那回来的数量就会少啊。那现在如果你是中东的土豪第一个。逆袭差距已经出现了,而且反映在A股的股价跟大陆的股票的价格?所以利息对他来讲不是问题,美国资金该撤退的都已经撤退了, 土豪现在满手的现金该怎么办?那找地方投资,那刚好看到A股跌到谷底,所以就有诱因可以进来投资A股, 这是第一个问题。第二个问题,阿拉伯国家没有地缘政治的担心。不管中美怎么斗,美国也不敢得罪他们,中国也不敢得罪他们。所以对他们来讲,地缘政治的风险系数,比欧美日其他国家来的低很多嘛。中国人其实对美国人感冒,对日本人厌恶。可是对阿拉伯国家觉得中东是杆兄弟! 张开怀抱, 开大门, 热烈欢迎! 中国人在打从心里面都不敢想说我要去没收中东土豪的钱。绝对不会的啦。所以穆斯林国家的资金呢,很自然会往中国来。而且有一件事情,中国政府做得很好。美国整天说谎说中国打压穆斯林,然后中国欺负新疆啊。讲了一大堆话,那中国很慷慨,说邀请这个中东呢,这领导人呢,去访问新疆,爱看哪里就爱看哪里哈啊。所以他们对这个就很放心。啊,所以中国这个工作做得很好,可是中国邀请美国人去美国不敢去。所以美国也很搞笑,因为去了要说实话,美国就不想说实话,所以中东土豪,找对时机来投资中国,他们做了一个正确的决定。要不然他老是在投资欧洲, 上一次在欧洲,因为俄乌战争,他们也被咬了一口。瑞士信贷又被咬了一口。赔了一屁股, 而且有更重要的指标。瑞士信贷出了问题,中东土豪把资金移开瑞士,南移到香港,新加坡也有,但是不少到香港。那这证明什么?专制的资本主义者跑来接受社会主义的保护。因为社会主义的银行不会倒。
Sunday, December 24, 2023
Atipremananda
Atipremananda is here, reminded me something in Taipei. Once we travelled to Liu Fen (六汾). 常人去的地方是九汾,旧时产黄金,我们为什么去六汾呢?是因为有人到瑜伽屋来,说哪儿有座庙,有一位老尼姑住那儿,如果我们跟老尼姑谈谈,合则老尼姑在死候会把庙捐给Ananda Marga, Atipremananda 就要我带他去, 那一天天气很好,我们就上路去探访这位尼姑,来到山脚下,我们徒步上山,上山时,我看到一个上半身似老鹰,下半身有人身, 有双脚的deva,在天上飞,我就举手端正做了一个Namaskar,我知道dada是看不到的,只有我能看到,我没有吭声。我们继续上山,按照住址来到庙前,只见那不是一座庙,是用铁顶盖了一长方形的房子,房子内有一座观世音石头做的立像, 我们走进问问,里面就出来一位老尼姑,跟我们说话,我做翻译, dada跟尼姑话家常,我在旁边, 边翻译边看,看到观音像身后有一黑影,就是先前看到的半身似鹰下半身似人的deva附在观音像上。连观世音的石头像都好像一支鹰, 谈了许久, dada要我跟老尼姑说正午到了,我们能否借此处稍作静坐,老尼姑就说让我进去问一问,出来说可以,我们可以在里面静坐,进坐完了,我们也悄悄下山。这座庙看来风水极佳,两旁有山,挡住了风刮, 面朝层层叠叠的山岭, 云海覆盖, 風景幽麗。http://www.math-drills.com/integers.shtml#addition
Sunday, December 17, 2023
Saturday, December 16, 2023
美国玛琪
他们非常自私,霸道,常常自以为是,自大狂的要命,喜欢浪费,任何地方,任何事情,任何方面都强过别的种族人. 比方说; 巴巴说: The best meditator is from China. 我在台湾,中国各地,很多人都会有静坐的问题来问我,早期时在台北,那几个美国和澳洲来的和尚跟尼姑,他们非常生气,说我怎么能够代替他们回答玛琪们有关静坐的问题,他们以为他们懂得很多, 举一例:DiDi Rukmini 认为巴巴不懂怎么跟西方姊妹说话。所以他要改写巴巴那本心理治疗书。很妙地巴巴也让他们那种爱表现的个性, 有所舒解, 也让他改写巴巴的演讲, 改用他们认为对的说法, Ananda Marga 的书, 就只有那本书, 我是不看的, 我看巴巴的原文, Guru的话就是mantra,Guru的话就是真理,我不认为西方人对Guru有这一层的认识,嘴巴上是服从,心理却不这么认为。所以西方人要有高程度的Bhaktik是不可能的。巴巴在欧洲,还有姊妹在巴巴的住处旁示威,因为巴巴在PC的时候, 不让姊妹们跟巴巴单独会面, 惹得巴巴很不高兴,把这些姊妹通通赶走,西方姊妹就是如此地背拗,你们看到了吧。 密勒日巴在上师六年的折磨,内心毫无怨言, 从未有怨恨上师的心态,认为这是自己的过错, 怎么会有西方人那种叛逆个性,不承认自己的错误,不认为自己的愚钝,还给上师示威,这些人太粗钝了。
Thursday, December 14, 2023
没家教
美国小孩一点家教都没有,真是受不了。前些天, 请他们吃饭, 门坏了, 阳台上的伞撑起来, 回家前也不放下来, 风一吹, 不会弯了嘛? 狗也放进来, 问都没有问过我们可不可以, 真是, 给他们气死了
Thursday, December 7, 2023
God wants Peace for sure
God always favors people living in peace. Disliking those who take advantage of others, God calls them exploiters. During WWI and WWII, for example, and of course, this applies to all wars and others, no matter how detailed the hegemony can think of, God knows. In many cases, God will give the good side, the humanitarian side, all the chances to win eventually. One thing I learned from the Old Testament is that God always keeps one or more just people living in the world. However many dictators can kill just people, still, there are one or more just people and holy men living with those dictators in the world. They symbolize "there is God in the world."
In recent years, it seemed like Russia was in the wrong. I saw it very clearly. If NATO had not expanded eastward, and America had not supported NATO actions, America believed they were number one. Since Russia collapsed in 1991, it could do whatever it wanted. NATO expanded eastward five times. Despite Russia warning NATO five times, NATO didn't listen. NATO enticed Ukraine to join, even though it was never going to happen. Additionally, Zelenski's corruption was uncovered at the same time. Zelenski called for war to distract international attention from his corruption, causing the deaths of hundreds and thousands of Ukrainians. For ten years, a Nazi-like camp was set up on the Eastside of Ukraine, torturing many Russian people for over a decade.
Recently, in Gaza, after the 6-day war, Israelis have been developing settlements in Gaza's north. They call it a "Settlement," but it's actually an invasion by Israelis. No one talks about it. In daily life, Palestinians have to move out of their homes while Israelis force them out. The situation worsens when Saudi Arabia discusses a new protection arrangement with the American government. This leaves Palestinians with no choice, no place to live, and their survivor space is shrinking. Israelis want Palestinians to move out completely. The war provides Netanyahu a chance to eliminate Palestinians entirely from Gaza. Where can the Palestinians move? There's no place—east side, the sea; south side, Egypt; west side, Jordan—there are already enough refugees on their land. Hamas fires the first shot, reminding Saudi Arabia to alert the Muslim side. RMB should take action now.
Why is the United States so bellicose?
In the past two years, I have witnessed the Russo-Ukrainian War, and now Israel is entering Gaza, with the shadow behind it being the United States. It inevitably makes people curious about the role of the United States. We need to ask a fundamental question: Why is the United States so fond of war? Why does it welcome war? In short, why is the United States so bellicose?"
Former U.S. President Carter, in a letter he sent to President Trump during his term, wrote the following: 'Do you know about China's punitive war against Vietnam since 1979, the war between mainland China and Vietnam? After 1979, has China engaged in any wars with other countries? Not a single one,' Carter said. 'We, on the other hand, have consistently been in a state of war. In the 242 years since the founding of the United States, only 16 years have been peaceful. Just think about what kind of country this is.' According to former President Carter, the United States is the most war-prone country in the history of humanity. Carter mainly discussed the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. He mentioned that we spent three trillion dollars on military expenses for these two wars, while mainland China did not spend a penny on war, which is why they have been able to develop to the extent they have today. This is his advice to Trump. To be honest, Trump also had a challenging time. After World War II, during Trump's four years in office, the United States did not engage in any wars. He is the only president in the past four decades during whose tenure the United States did not experience war.
Thursday, November 23, 2023
Humantarian Rights
Water is very cold this year. 今年洗冷水澡, 水特别冷, 手盛水时那手指一分钟就受不了, 洗到腰部, 每次都会有抽筋的感觉.
God always favors people living in peace. Disliking those who take advantage of others, God calls them exploiters. During WWI and WWII, for example, and of course, this applies to all wars and others, no matter how detailed the hegemony can think of, God knows. In many cases, God will give the good side, the humanitarian side, all the chances to win eventailly. One thing I learned from the Old Testament is that God always keeps one or more just people living in the world. However many dictators can kill just people, still, there are one or more just people and holy men living with those dictators in the world. They symbolize "there is God in the world.
In recent years, it seemed like Russia was in the wrong. I saw it very clearly. If NATO had not expanded eastward, and America had not supported NATO actions, America believed they were number one. Since Russia collapsed in 1991, it could do whatever it wanted. NATO expanded eastward five times. Despite Russia warning NATO five times, NATO didn't listen. NATO enticed Ukraine to join, even though it was never going to happen. Additionally, Zelenski's corruption was uncovered at the same time. Zelenski called for war to distract international attention from his corruption, causing the deaths of hundreds and thousands of Ukrainians. For ten years, a Nazi-like camp was set up in the Eastside of Ukraine, torturing many Russian people for over a decade.
Recently, in Gaza, after the 6-day war, Israelis have been developing settlements in Gaza's north. They call it a "Settlement," but it's actually an invasion by Israelis. No one talks about it. In daily life, Palestinians have to move out of their homes while Israelis force them out. The situation worsens when Saudi Arabia discusses a new protection arrangement with the American government. This leaves Palestinians with no choice, no place to live, and their survivor space is shrinking. Israelis want Palestinians to move out completely. The war provides Netanyahu a chance to eliminate Palestinians entirely from Gaza. Where can the Palestinians move? There's no place—east side, the sea; south side, Egypt; east side, Jordan—there are already enough refugees on their land. Hamas fires the first shot, reminding Saudi Arabia to alert the Muslim side. RMB should take action now.
地动山摇
earth shaking and mountains trembling
Have you seen Ba'Ba' gets angry. i told dada, Ba'Ba' deals with all these stupid fools everyday. Most of the time, he got so angry on the daily basis. While Ba'Ba''s angry, what would happen? 日月无光, 地动山摇.
i know what happened with my power of kundialii in me. When i yelled it out, just like that. No one can stand for it. Most of the time, when i alert there is spirituality vibration is in dazy or level is low, i have to clear out the lazy vibration with kundalinii. i have to inject the spiritual energy into the world by putting a little bit of my kundalinii into the air.
你们到我家门口办事, 闹事, 挖这里挖那里, 我赶你走是当然的事.你们还叫嚣, 不把你毙掉,算客气了.
Tuesday, November 21, 2023
I met BaBa in different planet , BaBa said to me
武汉保卫战规模空前中国军队为此付出了惨重的代价但也给予日军巨大杀伤从此以后日军再也无力在中国战场发动如此大规模的战役
There was one night, Ba'Ba' said to us in a very auspicious way, he said:" Many years ago, We met in another planet. And we decided to come to this earth this time in this day to do some work. i rememered i was a Shaky Muni's diciple first. it's about 3000 years ago. then, i met BaBa in a planet. then, i came down to this earth in this life time.
Monday, November 20, 2023
Racism Everyday in Ananda Marga
Right here, the Margii group is filled with racism. Chinese individuals, you may choose to pretend that racism does not exist or endure the possibility of facing such insults at any time, any day.
Friday, November 17, 2023
Stupid people died in their hands because they elected their leader
Stupid people died in their hands because they elected their leader. Zelenski' corrucption was found. And he just got sue from his people. What he did was to created a war against Russia. In this way, many Ukranian people died. And the land was lost. Wester countries wanted to deserve Zelenski these days. They exposed a lot of corruption about Zelenski's party. Included weapons into the black market. exploded North Nord pipeline.
John Mearsheimer speech in Australia
John Mearsheimer is professor of political science at the University of Chicago he's also author of many prominent books most notably the tragedy of great power politics that was published in 2001 which predicted that the rise of China would not be peaceful now John is according to the next edition of the prestigious New York based foreign affairs magazine quote one of the most famous political scientists in history and that, please, welcome John Mearsheimer. Thank you all, coming out tonight I’m amazed at that how many people are here the subject I want to talk about for about 25 minutes and then I'll be more than willing after Peter makes his comments on my comments to take any questions that folks have is all about American grand strategy and my argument is that the United states is losing focus and you said to yourself what exactly does that mean I believe that the principal threat to the United states faces in the world is the rise of China and the possibility that China might try to dominate Asia and I think we have a deep seated interest in containing China but what's happened is that the United states has lost focus and it's got diverted it into the Ukraine war in Europe and it's now getting diverted into the Middle East with the war between Hamas and Israel and the United states therefore unable to pivot completely to Asia and I think this is a major mistake for the United States and what I want to do tonight is elaborate my thinking on that main thesis OK the best starting point for thinking about this issue is just to talk about the global balance of power it's very important to understand that most of the young people in the audience came of age during the unipolar moment period from 1989 when the Cold War ended up until about 2017 it's commonly known as the unipolar moment what that means is that there was only one great power on the planet and that one great power was the United States of America this is a world that Australians almost to a person loved because the United states provided security for you and there was no China threat there was no Soviet threat and you were able to grow economically and all sorts of ways to become more prosperous this was the unipolar moment but it's very important to understand that what's happened is that the unipolar moment is in the rearview mirror it's gone we are now in a multipolar world where we went from one great power to three great powers The United states China and Russia and we now consider Russia a great power because Vladimir Putin since he took over in 2000 has brought the Russians back from the dead most of you know that in the 1990s Russia had basically died. Putin brought them back from the dead so Russia is a great power China is a great power and of course Uncle Sam is a great power and it's important to understand that Uncle Sam is still the most powerful state on the planet but nevertheless China is a pure competitor it is growing economically it is growing militarily and it is beginning to close in on the United States and that's why I said to you folks before China is the real threat to the United states, Russia is the weakest of those three great powers, it's very important to understand that's the basic architecture of the system at this point in time right went from unipolarity to multipolarity, we have three great powers Sam is one China two and the Russians are a distant third that's the world let me switch gears now and just talk a little bit about American grand strategy and tie it to that global balance of power in the United states from America there are three areas that you die for where you expend blood and iron those three areas of the world are Europe, East Asia and the Persian Gulf you care about Europe and you care about East Asia, that's where the great powers are and if you're the United States of America and you're a great power you care about the other great powers the gulf is of great interest to the United States and other countries on the planet simply because it has oil and oil is a very special resource and the United states does not want any country controlling all the oil in the Persian Gulf so the United states has a deep seated interested in maintaining a balance of power in the Persian Gulf down we have these three areas of the world East Asia Europe and the gulf. Historically, the United states has cared most about Europe has been historically much more important than East Asia and that's because the most powerful great powers on the planet have been located mainly in Europe Nazi Germany was a much greater threat than imperial Japan the Soviet Union which spanned Europe and Asia had most of its military might concentrated in Europe so we have long had a Europe first policy that changed after 2017 for the first time in American history East Asia is the most important area of the world for us why is that the case one very simple reason who's the peer competitor out there it's not Germany it's not Russia it's China where is China located it's located in East Asia therefore East Asia is the most important area of the world and what I'm telling you is that the United states should pivot right to East Asia and not get bogged in Europe Russians don't matter that much they're not a threat to dominate Europe and the Persian Gulf does not have a potential hegemon sitting in that region there's no one country that's gonna take over all the oil so we're in an ideal world free to pivot but we've not fully pivoted and what I'm telling you and I'm gonna lay this out more detail is we are going to get more deeply involved in Ukraine and in the Middle East and we already are and in both cases the problem is not going to go away the situation regarding Ukraine and Russia is going to get worse with time for us and the Israeli Palestinian conflict and the problems in the Middle East are going to get worse as well. Darkness ahead in both regions and what does that mean it means it's difficult to pivot point it's very important to understand that if the United states worried about feeling the China and there's one other great power in the system and that other great power is Russia you want Russia on your side of the Ledger in other words if you're in the United States and you're looking at a China threat and there's Russia you want Russia with you because Russia represents power it is a great power you want the Russians with you against the Chinese, what have we foolishly done we have foolishly pushed the Russians into the arms of the Chinese so the Russians and the Chinese you surely will know are tightly allied. This is not in our interest it should be Uncle Sam and the Chinese I mean, excuse me, Uncle Sam and the Russians that are tightly allied against China, That’s the basic situation we face. We are in trouble. This is why I say we've lost focus and word trump now what I wanna do is I wanna unpack it for you I wanna unpack this argument in greater detail number one I want to briefly talk about East Asia and what's happened with regard to U.S. policy toward China that's pretty straightforward but then I want to get into the tricky issues one Ukraine and to the Middle East talk about the Ukraine war and the Israel Palestine conflict and its potential for escalation and make my point that we're gonna have a tough time fully pivoting these days let's start with Ukraine let me just give you a little bit of background on the history of the Ukraine problem so you have a feel for sort of how this got started and why we're in the present situation. When the Cold War ended the United states debated whether or not to expand NATO east and we decided in the early 90s the Bill Clinton administration did that we were going to expand NATO eastward and the Russians made it unequivocally clear from the beginning this was unacceptable they just proposed but they were very weak in 1990 from what I said before and they were even very weak in the early 2000s this is before they are brought back from the dead by Putin so in 1999 we shoved NATO expansion down their face down your throat when we bring in Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic it's 1999 OK then in 2004 we shove another tranche of NATO expansion down their throat this is when we bring in the Baltic states; Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Slovakia, the Russians are hollering out loud that this is unacceptable they don't want it but they're too weak and we push it down that's 2004 first trunch 99 second trunch 2004, in April 2008 that's when we made the really big mistake. We say in Bucharest the annual NATO summit in Bucharest. April 2008 we're bringing Ukraine and Georgia into the alliance Putin says that the time the Russians make it unequivocally, clear across the board is this is not happening and Putin makes it clear that he will destroy Ukraine before he allows it to become a member of the alliance the Americans think that they can just shove it down Putin's throat just like they did in 1999 just like they did in 2004 so we continued to push and not only are we pushing NATO expansion we're pushing EU expansion at the same time and we're trying to foster a color revolution many of you I'm sure wherever the orange revolution we were trying to foster in Ukraine what are we doing there we're trying to turn Ukraine into a liberal democracy that has a pro West orientation. This spooks the Russians like you wouldn't believe a Liberal Democratic Ukraine that's in the EU that's in NATO especially in NATO. On their boarder, the crisis breaks out in 2014, 2008, Bucharest 2014 is when the crisis breaks out that's when the Russians take Crimea number one and two, that's when the civil war breaks out inside Ukraine in the Dombass so there's big trouble in 2014 and that trouble continues through 20 21 and at the end of 2021 the Russians are scrambling to get some sort of agreement the Americans won't agree and on February 24th 2022 a war breaks out the present war breaks out so you see the crisis broke out in 2014 and that's when Crimea was lost and then eight years later February 2022 the war that we now read about every day broke out that's the background would you wanna now think about is what's happening in that war where is this train headed that's what you wanna know now in 2022 remember the war breaks out in February 2022 if you go from February 2022 to the end of the year let's say December 31st 2022 over that time period the Ukrainians do very well they do very well the Russians are slow to mobilize and the Russians are not a highly efficient fighting force at that point in time and we're beginning to think in 2022 we're gonna beat the Russians push from that of the Dombass pushed them out of Crimea and really maybe even knocked them out of the ranks of the great powers so we're playing hardball with the Russians but what the Russians do in the end at the end of September 2022 is they mobilized 300,000 men and they begin to learn how to fight on the battlefield and then over the course of 2023 the year that we're now in they are raising an additional 425,000 men and they have an industrial base that allows them to produce huge amounts of artillery, huge numbers of tanks, huge numbers of aircraft, huge numbers of helicopters. Ukrainians don't have that capability they depend on us and you know what we ran down our industrial base during the year polar moment we do not we in the West this includes Australia we do not collectively have the capability to produce lots of artillery tubes artillery shells tanks and so forth and so on the Russians do and why does this matter what you wanna understand about this war between Ukraine and Russia is it's a war of attrition, it's Muhammad Ali right and Joe Frazier standing toe to toe pounding the living daylights out of each other that's what it is think World War One on the Western Front , that's the kind of war this is nothing fancy about this one the question you want to ask yourself is who wins in a war of attrition where two armies are head to head two factors matter the population size of each country because that tells you how many soldiers you can send to the front population size and how much artillery each side has when I went to West Point and I was in the American military we were taught that artillery is the king of battle and the war of attrition that is certainly true the question is what's the population ratio look like between the two sides what's your artillery ratio look like wanna know what the population ratio is it's five to one in the Russian space you wanna know what your tillery ratio looks like it's somewhere between 5 to 1 and 10 to 1, and most people think it's 10 to 1, this point in time and the Russians favor and we cannot we in the West cannot rectify that imbalance so you have the situation where the Ukrainians are outnumbered population wise 5 to 1 they're outnumbered probably 7 to 1, 10 to 1, in terms of artillery can't improve either one of those situations and in a war of attrition that's the kiss of death, and furthermore, on top of all that is you know they launched a counter offensive on four June of this year my God the Ukrainians have suffered enormous casualties with these offenses we've encouraged them to attack the Russians it was foolish in the extreme in my opinion the Ukrainians should remained under defensive they have suffered such casualties and they already were down 5 to one population wise and down in terms of artillery they're gonna to lose. There's no way the Ukrainians can win, what does losing mean in this case the Russians are not gonna conquer the whole country it would be a massive mistake it's a huge piece of real estate in Ukraine and furthermore there are lots of people especially in the central part in the western part of Ukraine or ethnic Ukrainians who hate the Russians occupying that area would be insane with the Russians are gonna end up doing because they now control close to 23% of Ukraine. I believe they'll try to take another 20% they have annexed. The Russians have annexed four bolas plus Korea and I believe that they will try to annex another four bolas and at the same time they're gonna go to great lengths to turn Ukraine into a dysfunctional rum state this rum state they will interfere in the politics of Ukraine they will interfere with the Ukrainian economy and they will do everything they can to wreck Ukraine and keep it wrecked as they said they would in 2008 and they have consistently said afterwards. How the problem here such from the fact that this is devastating defeat for Ukraine problem is Ukraine won't be knocked out of the fight completely and what you will get at some point is not a peace agreement you're not going to get a peace agreement here you're gonna get a frozen conflict the fighting will stop there'll be a ceasefire and you'll have a frozen conflict it'll be a lot like Korea on the 38th parallel as you all know North Korea on one side South Korea on the other over frozen conflict and the potential for escalation will be ever present if you want to understand the United states will be involved in Ukraine in Eastern Europe doing everything it can to damage Russia we will not lose gracefully we will not lose in Ukraine and pivot to Asia we will stay in Ukraine we will continue to support Ukraine we will continue to look for opportunities to screw the Russians and the Russians will look for opportunities to screw us you will have this nasty security competition in Eastern Europe, there's no end insight to the trouble that we are now facing in Ukraine which by the way tells you what a massive mistake we made in April 2008 trying to bring Ukraine into NATO but my bottom line to you here is that that makes it very difficult to pivot. That's the Ukraine issue and if I had come here last month instead of coming this month at this point in time I would have stopped the talk here right but now we have another massive problem confronting us that I don't know who saw it coming ? I certainly didn't , the Israelis certainly didn't see it coming, but if you go back to October 6th it looked like the Middle East was a peaceful region compared to what was going on in Eastern Europe it looked like a remarkably peaceful area and Jake Sullivan is you know basically said that the Middle East had look so good a long time but then came up October 7th and Hamas attacked Israel and uh in a deadly effective way and of course the Israelis have reacted by declaring war on Hamas and you now have this giant conflict between Israel and Hamas that threatens to escalate to where Hezbollah might come in conflict might break out on the West Bank, or even the Iranians might come in so this is a really dangerous situation and much like Ukraine. We're gonna sink deeper into the mud here and this one's not going away anytime soon right now why do I say that first thing you want to keep in mind when you talk about Israel and the United states is that the two countries are joined at the hip there's just no question about that I don't think this is a controversial issue I don't think you've ever had a closer relationship between any two countries than you have between Israel and the United states so it's very hard for the United states in any meaningful way to distance itself from Israel so that's the first point you want to keep in mind second point you want to keep in mind is that the tap root of the problem here is the Israel Palestine or the Israel Palestinian conflict that that's the taproot and you just have to understand what that conflict looks like this is a long standing conflict as you all know and you just want to understand its essence because that tells you a lot about what's happening now and what is likely to happen over time The United states has been deeply interested in creating two state solution as most of you I'm sure know in Israel and what the United states has been interested in doing is creating a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza and in east Jerusalem living next door to a Jewish state, Israel. We have failed we’ve not been able to push the Israelis to accept that and there's no two state solution. So what the Israelis now have and which the government in Israel wants is greater Israel, greater Israel includes the West Bank, Gaza and 1967 Israel or green line Israel that's greater Israel, the key point you want to keep in mind is that there are approximately 7.3 million Palestinians and approximately 7.3 million Israeli Jews in greater Israel there is rough equality between Palestinians and Israeli Jews. You just think about that so when you think about Israel you think about Israel as the Jewish state it's completely understandable you want to understand that that Jewish state has as many Palestinians in it as it has Jews and by the way this very prominent Democrat demographic expert who is really who argues that there are slightly more Palestinians than there are Jews inside greater Israel and furthermore when you look at demographic trends overtime,
there are going to be more Palestinians than there are Jews and this is the Jewish state so the question is what do you do here, what has happened is that the Israelis do not want to give equal rights to Palestinians because they gave equal rights for the Palestinians Israel would sue cease to be a Jewish state because they're more Palestinians than there are Jews, if not now, certainly in the future so in the case of the Palestinians who are in Gaza basically they have been cordoned off they have been isolated in Gaza and it is commonplace to refer to Gaza as the largest open air prison in the world and if you read virtually any account of what life is like for those Palestinians who live in Gaza it is absolutely horrible there is just no question about that they live under horrible conditions in effect in a prison you want to understand that Israel controls the borders around Gaza and it controls the air above Gaza these are not disputable issues and again there are about 2.1 million of those 7.3 million Palestinians in Gaza and the fact is that the Israelis who have been playing hardball with the Palestinian since 1948 when the state of Israel was created are in a situation where the Palestinians are going to erupt from time to time, most of us in this audience have heard of the first inapa we have heard of the second inapa, the inapas were uprisings by the Palestinians the Palestinians want their own nation state just as the Jews wanted their own nation state it's perfectly understandable that the Zionists were interested in coming to Palestine and creating a Jewish state a Jewish nation state that's completely understandable but as my mother taught me when I was a little boy what's good for the goose is good for the gander and if the Jews want their own nation state are you surprised that the Palestinians want their own nation state no and American policymakers especially American president going back to Jimmy Carter understood this completely and put enormous should have put enormous pressure on Israel to accept the two state solution but we were incapable of doing that we could not put great pressure on Israel and the end result is you have a greater Israel and inside that greater Israel are 7.3 million Palestinians just to take this step further it's very controversial to refer to Israel as an apartheid state given how they treat the Palestinians but Human Rights Watch Amnesty International and bet selum, bet selum is one of the leading human rights groups in the world and it's an Israeli human rights group, Human Rights Watch Amnesty International and bet selum all have produced significant reports that label Israel as an apartheid state so this is the reality that you now face and the problem is there is no way the Israelis are ever going to agree to a two state solution because the political center of gravity in Israel has moved far to the right over time and is likely to move further to the right over time if you look at the Israeli demographic situation, it's really women have large numbers of babies compared to western birth rates but your average ultra orthodox woman has about seven babies so what's happening is that the ultra orthodox who now represent 13% of the population will probably represent about 30% of the population in 2050 or 2060 they're growing significantly in number and the ones were orthodox I mean there are problems with for Israel because first of all they don't serve in the military secondly the husbands don't work and in effect live on welfare but furthermore their politics are far to the right the whole orthodox are not going to be sympathetic to a two state solution, furthermore after what happened on October 7th what do you think the Israelis are gonna say when you say let's move towards a two state solution they are going to look at you like you're crazy given what happened on October 7th so all of this is just to say the only hope in my opinion of ever sadly this conflict between the Palestinians and the Jews inside of greater Israel was a two state solution and a two state solution is not going to happen that train has left the station and again as I said to you it's very important to understand that the United states has joined at the hip with the Israelis and therefore as this situation continues to faster in Israel we are inextricably bound up in it, let me just take this step further talk about the Israeli Palestinian conflict, first of all, we have the deep seated interest instability in the Middle East we were working before October 7th you all remember with Saudi Arabia to get Saudi Arabia and Israel to reach some sort of accommodation the Abraham accords that we had helped facilitate during the trump years between Israel and Bahrain Israel and Morocco and Israel and the United Arab Emirates where relations between Israel and those three countries had significantly improved the Biden administration was trying to get another Abraham accord this one which would have been the big enchilada involving Israel and Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is adamantly opposed to what's happening with regard to the Israeli war against the Palestinians there's a possibility Hezbollah may come into this conflict the Israelis in Hezbollah are exchanging rocket fire up on israel's northern border there's a possibility that Iran might come in as I said before there's a possibility that conflict will break out on the West Bank approximately 90 Palestinians have been killed on the West Bank since October potential for this one spiraling out of control within the context of the Middle East is really very worrisome by the way you understand we sent this Armada aircraft carrier battle group the Gerald USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier battle group off the coast off the coast of Israel shot down 3 Christmases U.S. forces shot down three cruise missiles that the most Houthis and Yemen had fired at Israel so in a very important way we've already been involved in of course a very tiny way in the fighting and if this one spins out of control in a big way we're likely to get dragged in and furthermore as I told you there's no hope of this going away anytime soon then there's the diplomatic dimension to this the Russians from the Chinese just love this situation right and they're saying all sorts of things about how the Americans failed to produce a diplomatic solution that would have given the Palestinians the state of their own and this is of course message that resonates all around the planet right we're all sorts of trouble in the Arab world this may lead to another oil embargo and furthermore in the global South the global South we're very interested in winning the allegiance of the global South especially to help us in Ukraine we're in deep trouble in the global South as a result of this so in terms of stability in the Middle East in terms of our diplomatic position around the world as a result the Arab Israeli conflict. We are in deep trouble right and again this is one of these situations that has no solution I mean that I can say I hope I'm wrong I hope I'm humiliated and a year from now when I return when Tom brings me back I can say I was wrong right the same thing is true with Ukraine but I don't see the Ukraine situation or the Middle East situation looking any better brings me to my bottom line, we have a pure competitor, the Biden administration as far as I'm concerned to a person will tell you that the principal threat the United States of America faces is China there is nobody who disagrees that China is our biggest threat but what I'm telling you is we're in a situation where we can't fully pivot to Asia to deal with that threat because we're pinned down in the Middle East now and before that in Ukraine furthermore the Russians who should be on their side because of our foolish policies have pushed them on to the side of the Chinese. This is not good the final point that I'll leave you with is you know we in the West and I'm sure this is true of many Australians vote the rules based order those talking about the rules based order we think it's important to better rules and West of course United States has played key role in establishing that rules based order which is in their interest but the rules based order is in tatters as result of Ukraine the Middle East and assorted other forms of behavior by the United states so all of this is to say we are in the deep kimchi .
Wednesday, November 15, 2023
During WWII, How Japanese Butchered Chinese Cities
二战时, 日军在中国屠城, 其中一个士兵把一个中国婴儿抛向空中,让那个婴儿掉到他的枪枝上的刺刀上, 还以此作姿拍照, 还有许多的士兵们兢赛, 看谁砍的人头越多.
During World War II, the Japanese military butchered many Chinese cities. One solider throwed a baby into the air and letting the baby landed on the bayonet of his rifle. and He posed in this manner for a picture taking. Many soldiers competed to see who could cut more Chinese people's head.
Tuesday, November 14, 2023
Holy attract people
I made my home holy. People like it. i do it on my rental properties. They become so attractive. It's so fast to rent it out.
When i talk to people, people like my talk. They express they want to learn meditation from me. This is the level you can attract people so easily. One time i did service at my customer's home. I went into the house. i saw a cat coming out. Later i saw the lady owner. The lady told me usually my cat didn't like strangers coming in the house. The cat would stay in a place. She would not come out. But when you came in the house, she came out to see who you were. i was amazed.
Sunday, November 12, 2023
说什么好人没有好报
我要跟这个白痴说一些他不懂得的宇宙的规矩, 做好事就能享受好的回报, 做坏事, 怀事就会上门, 神佛畜牲皆同, 一人做事一人当, 是我做的, 果报就回给我, 不会转到你处.
我又要说些南怀瑾的不是, 他那本书,”静坐与长生不老”,根本就是抄写”因是子”静坐的,”因是子”静坐没有写任督脉通后之事,南怀瑾也不懂, 不知道胡说些什么,说任脉通就是中脉通,胡说八道,还远得很呢,任脉要通,阴维阳维,阴蹻阳蹻通后,再通左右脉, 左右脉通才开始通中脉,要通中脉就讲到了七轮,七轮十气,后现神通,有神通但不能用,要继续修, 修到证入究竟三摩地, 就是无余三摩地。南怀瑾把左右脉, 中脉画成三直线,也是错误的, 在灵修方面,他骗外行人,又误导所有的弟子.
Thursday, November 9, 2023
这些人都不懂定
虚云, 戒尘, 梦参, 南怀瑾,不懂禅定, 虚云的七天坐不是定, 那是灵体出游, 真能定, 不到一分钟, 就会入三摩地的, 这些人都不懂定.
父母与子女是因缘的配合。不是子女能选父母或父母能选子女。
我们当然有慈悲。不需要经。有修行,就会生慈悲心。
这个人在这里说了一堆, 就产生了一堆的错误。真是要老命。
Wednesday, November 8, 2023
What China is going to do?
习近平会有很多公开的再有就是说的公关因为西方的媒体不太有机会尤其在美国的本土不太有机会这么近距离的可以拍到这是很特别的就是中国人民的领导人跟西方的媒体的距离是是有距离的那平常他们知道大陆的去做采访不管是什么什么会啊等等都是很远远距离这么近距离的去拍摄会留下许多习近平在现在的中美关系当中呢特别的历史性的镜头所以那个形象工程你们过去抹黑中国这么久我能让你看看中国是什么样子那些习近平这次要去推销中中国让大家重新认识中国让告诉你们对中国的那个自我的幻想的那种抹黑为中国在美国的舆论里面做的是吧白的动作第三个我觉得比较具体的就是招商的动作跟刚刚讲的这个晚宴呢就很直接的关系了因为在中国大陆今年1月8号当疫情过了之后重新开放了值之后就发现西方的开开始在在几个问题当中呢大做文章第一个有很多的原来在大陆采访的这些呢西方的主流的媒体呢记者退出了大陆的财产吗朵朵在台湾写写大陆新新闻很多很多原来跑大陆的经济者包括BBC你对我想他们都在台湾现在在台湾跟我们一样看看很多的YY店然后写大陆的新闻你说你认为他们他们知道的会比我们多吗你认为他们在判断会比我们怎么没有啊所以这段时间以来在线的记者他们也很苦恼他们也说他们也很想回去采访可是第一个就总总部不见得派他们去他们有点怕怕的因为在他们想象当中大陆现在对西方人对西方媒体的不友善我知道其实很紧会是根本拿不到中国大陆的签证对但是这一次之后习近平的这次的习拜会之后我认为包括了这些的媒体重新回到大陆的味道呢是会有的第二个就是说许多的大陆的企业西方的媒体不断释放出说大陆企业陆陆续续在撤出中国有的时候呢是担忧担心的什么反间谍的问问题啦因为担心了投资环境啦当中那对于这种的民营企业啦外外外来资本的不够有友善啦所以呢都开始陆陆续续来到退退出这也是一部分的事实对好但是呢习近平这一次去跟这跟这场的参会两千块美金一张门票参会它的主办单位呢是美国的亚洲协会这这都是很很很很老牌的亚洲亚洲协会早期的时候是针对日本针针对东南亚可是后来他的重点呢中国还有外交关系委员会还有美国商会他们的这个三个会呢共同举办的那他们呼吁呢各方呢有兴趣参加的赶快呢回复邀约邀请本来怕做不满结果呢现在爆炒一直在家猪那因此大家都认为说因为知道习近平要来了而他们这次的活动的名义邀请函当中是跟中国高级官员及其部长级的代表团的一场的共进晚宴大概就开始就脑补了就开始想要说那一定是习近平所以能够跟随习近平代表会谈一定要私下去打听我我相信有管道私下打听了对吧就是说大家都很乐观的期待就在这个场合当中呢会遇到呢习近平那我说这对西方要要观察中国的领导人的一些的思想啊风格啊或或者近距离的应该会有一场习近平非常关键的谈话就是对于美国透过美国的这样APEC的会议向全世界的就是说呢这些商业那释放出一个呢中国的非常正面的讯号所以习近平在这次的APEC当中呢当初既然要去了我相信呢那个彩排是非常盛大的所以我说这次的鞋鞋带会的重点不不是习拜会而是中国的一场国际大秀呃刚刚其实提到就是说中国富强这件事情啊其实对于中国大陆的和平崛起我看到有一些评论当然也是有些也是轻松者的评论就提到说崛起这两个字嗯腹肌了美国不惜了欧洲所以中国不应该再谈崛起这两个字但是我仔细的去思索了一件事情就是说除非你希望中国永远贫富不均否则中国怎样富强他一定崛起嗯14亿人口如果14亿人口全部都成为中产阶级以上那加起来的国力那就是很可怕嗯对不对所以这是一个你没办法改变的努力目标嗯所以呢这是一个必须要去做的目标一种不可能希望中国永远苹果吧嗯这个应该就是全中国人共同的想法好那现在问题关键点来了就是我前一阵子因为也刚好就是看了一些中国大陆的比如说他们的官员里的谈话啊等等他们在谈历史的时候都会以一次世界大战的德国慰藉其实我印象很深刻我在看这个整个英国衰落开始衰落然后美国跟德国有可能成为世界超强的时候当时德国选择一次世界大战的然后美国选择就完全不参与战争一直到最后关头的时候他才参战看到最后关头可能有机会了他才参战我觉得那一段期间呢就使得美国确定取代英国成为世界霸权而德国就确定永远无法超越一段历史教训我觉得对对中国大陆来讲是很重要他必须要熬过那个一个修昔底德陷阱这是他现在很重要的一门功课嗯所以我会觉得他从去年到现在它的长期战略没有改变他也他跟很多的要不断选举的国家不一样因为很多很多要选举的国家就要不断的去回应说民众现在对这个世界很感冒所以我们要采取什么行为啊对这个世界很感冒所以我们要采取什么样的行为对于中国大陆来讲中美关系回不去不重要世界能够理解中国的和平这件事情可能比较重要而美国的政界不理解中国的崛起或者到刻意抹黑中国的崛起不重要但美国的企业界如果发挥影响力对他很重要你说招商哦我觉得招商的原因感觉上面都觉得是要他们的钱来我觉得不是我觉得现在对于中国大陆来说其实我看到很多的这个API的这些资料里面现在有一种很重要的解读就是因为中国大陆现在利率相对比较便宜其实欧洲美国的利率还比较高嗯那如果我今天在中国大陆要投资我是不是干脆在中国大陆借钱去投资就好嗯是我何必要在美国借比较贵的利率在欧洲界比较贵的利率我的重点是我必须参与这个市场的崛起所以我觉得这一次企业界的报名的人数将会决定中国市场到底在美国企业界还有多少份量我见有吃业界他们对于中国市场的有兴趣我去改变在政治上面或在理论场上面全面性反中的那一种态势哪怕你有哪怕有一个突破口一个好嗯那你如果你是做战略决策者的话这当然是一个很重要的一一个路径我此时此刻全世界反以色列而进而反美的这个朝这个风这个浪潮最重要的他们来说也是一个战略机遇期嗯所以它的布局绝对是要看全世界如果它的焦点只放在美国或者我们的焦点只放在美国那么中国大陆的崛起就永远只能够看着美国的屁股不过我不觉得中国大陆会用这种方式来看待世界中国大陆的发展路径啊他他之所以他能够走到今天就是因为他走的路径都不是南方国家的发展路径所有的南方国家除了俄罗斯以外它的发展路径呢都都是在一个殖民经济当中在在殖民母国表面上的离开但是呢在所留下来的殖民经济体系当中呢继续往前走最根本上呢他并没有脱离就是说呢这边美国呢对他的影响也没有脱离就是说呢西西方的这些呃经济跟金融资本对他们的操作甚至于在产业的多元化上面都显得非常的困难因此呢就颠颠簸簸一直都不成功那俄罗斯是采取对抗的态度那中中国呢是走在另外的一条路中国虽然是所谓的有中国特色的社会主义可是呢很到目前为止呢到目前为止很成功的调和了自己的社会主义信仰跟就是说资本主义的这些呢和核心的技术面的操作能对接那个难度很高在中国的身上我我只能说到目前为止整个的实验呢是非常成功的好那事实证明这一次的这一次的初出访我想在整个的从从过去几年的时间西方呢在处理中国的时候呢其实跟跟中国的关系是那种的冲突大于竞争竞争大于合作我是想从冲突是中美关系是中国跟美国为首的西方国家在过去几年当中最主要的调但是现在这一次的失败会之后有没有机会倒过来就是合作大于竞争竞争大于冲突就是个道道过来把冲突的比重呢降低这个是呢这次呢习拜会呃习近平这次出访的重点我就点看看吧对毕竟呢iPad它有两个两个特性这个美国并不重视iPad美国呢在他的这种的就是这个多边主义呢逐逐渐放弃了之后他其实对APEC的投入已经非常非常少了不管是川普或者拜登的都一样这个但是iPad有有一个先天的先天的好处就是iPad里面没有病毒对对对对因为还是亚太对就是没有没有印度那就单纯很多所以你知道一个一个机构里面没有印度啊让中国处理事情的时候呢比较没有觉得老是觉得背后呢有个有个黑影子在那晃好那这一次的这次的到访张奉新提到的就是说整个的国际的环境的一个就是最近的一段时间的国际政治的大事我认为中国到目前为止所有的有关于国际大事的立场的表达都站在正确里边你觉得包括二五吗包括二五码2525很敏感吗呃我肯定牵涉到俄罗斯可是呢乌克兰的后面呢是是是不是北约是欧是欧欧洲国家可是中国到现在为止他就是慢慢的让所有的西方的国家清楚的认识到我和俄罗斯的关系是和俄罗斯的关系但是和乌克兰以及和欧盟的关系欧洲关系是欧洲的关系所以欧盟呢之后下个月欧盟也要也要过中国很久没有了但是现在你看仿佛得来的今年初呢跟着马克龙来来撑的时候冯德莱恩多暗淡了从来到走中国根本没让他讲话的机会都没有冯德兰在中国连长公开讲话的机会都没有啊所以呢就是就就是呢跟在呢我们知道呢马克龙来他也来了他是自己搭飞机来的来之后就回去了一个欧盟的执委会的就是说呢主主席来讲这个呢其实是是很很暗淡的可是他这次来而且敲锣打鼓地说我要跟米歇尔一起来那表示呢中国跟欧盟欧盟跟着美国反中也已经非常久了但是十二月份的这样一个中欧的高高层的互动显示中欧关系也要慢慢的回到常轨了阿尔巴尼斯我很佩服他就就就是他的这个调整对于就是说西方因为市场来说肤色人种啊语言还是扮演很重要的角色看着阿尔巴尼斯是怎么做的你不要不要不要觉得很简单了你要知道欧欧洲有哪几件事情在反中是站在最前头的不要说像是王王立强事件不要这样戏中的战略研究所是西方黑中国的大大的你光看到几件事事情全世界西方的国家体系里面美国的朋友圈里面第一个战队美美国拒绝华为的账号是奥灶你在你在你在再看到在2022年的2022年的冬奥的时候冬奥的时候呢更冷的感觉呢美国的一个表态我们不参加冬奥澳洲澳洲在过去那个反终极先锋的味道非常浓厚跟你像阿尔巴尼斯这次的到访的时候的那种春风化雨那种非常温暖的感觉非常不一样它更妙的是当他正在中国在走访在上海在在北京到处早上出来跑跑步跟老百姓的互动释放温暖的时候你听到的是暗恋我文雄正在为他的车Seven的轮子主席呢在正在呢做做他的年年度呢所以说收官的动作还在强调那它的机身人呢非常关注那东海南海以及台海的和平稳定还在谈这些调子的时候当他的兄弟们在机身们的外长在东京开会的时候可是呢阿尔巴尼斯呢他的外长但在中国大陆大陆呢到处呢吃吃喝喝走走逛逛那个是一个很明显的示范的那个动作好那现在不管是俄乌的问题或者是最近的大的问题我想连联合国的民调已经很清楚了吧联合国的投票里面是压倒压倒性的那美国呢始终因为撕裂让美国人没有办法我说美国对以色列的承诺是一种战略性的承诺是他在全世界关乎到美国这个国家继续控制这个世界的三个战略支点当中非常重要的一个所以对以色列它是没有什么是非可以讲的他只有厉害因此支持以色列是一个美国的核心的国家的厉害喔关问题在这个基础上面这个事件呢对美国就不认账了了当然对对大部分的国家来说对联合国体系来讲看到了对以色列莫可奈何大家也会觉得很气馁就是所有战后的国际秩序国际法大家所信守的国际政治当中的基本原则碰到以色列对付巴勒斯坦时候都不都不适用可是中国在这个时候呢所突出来的自己的角色中国在中东创造了大和平而美国在中东呢创造了大屠杀这个对比是一个非常重要的战略其所谓战略机遇就是让全世界重新认识中国的思考中国的国际政治的思考中国对这个世界应该是什么样子的那个思考当下对中国是很有利的另外有这件事情所创造出来的国际舆论的环境跟跟平台习近平这次去爱派我觉得能够创造出来的那个能见度跟营造中国的形象的那个那个机会会好非常非常多所以我我我我虽然不会乐观地认为就是说中美之间的那种对抗性的架构因此开始出现反转可是最糟的我大概是过了好这个是一方面也关心中美关系但是我觉得也更关心中国大陆其实在思考国际布局的时候的思考战略点是一个什么样子的方式去思考你把时间拉长你可能更能够看得出那个布局而不是受当下的情绪气氛的影响好这是我们所看到的但我最我觉得那一场那一场商界的那个宴会我觉得我还蛮关心的他第一个元素当然很重要但是呢去了哪些企业我告诉你所有的媒体一定都会定义当然当然当然当然当然好然后当然习近平说了什么话嗯它所释放出来的讯息然后美国企业就接收到了什么嗯我觉得这些都是我们后续我其实都还会想看一下就是包括了华尔街日报他可能怎么去看这个美国企业跟中国大陆的市场然后呢这个包括了这个伦敦金融时报啦然后Bloomberg啦这些财经媒体为主的这一些他们的评论当中怎么去看美国企业跟中国市场之间的关系因为这将会决定一定程度的美国的理论厂就是因为如果不是这样以巴以巴冲突啊其实九月以来啊呃中国在国际舆论当中的能见度是非常高的一直在C位你不管是行行组亚军然后接接下去一带一路的崩溃香山论坛以及大家对习拜会的期待在习拜会之前的时候你看到这一段的最近中中单中方在有很长的时间气球事件之后呢中美之间的所有互动几乎呢都都暂停那八八项交流都暂停可是光是看了这一两个礼拜就是时间中美中美双方海洋事务的从商中美的军控跟防防扩散的磋商中美的外交政策从商还包括了中美中美之间的残疾人事务协调会由于关于呢残障事物的这样的一个错磋商然后呢接下去呢是大陆国家副主席韩振现在在新加坡耳耳和何立峰呢在美国中国其实在这两个月时间在对外的外交动作上面变得非常的积极那传传统上面我是下半年九月之后是中国的国国际政治的大月了就是重点都在年底可是像这么积极的倾巢而出的汗呢呃韩正呢在新加坡说最近中美之间开展的一些重要高层接触提升了国际社会对未来中美关系改善的正面预期他说呢他在强调就是说我们的中国愿意和美方加强各层次的沟通对话推进互利合作妥善管控分歧合力应对全球性的挑战韩正在在外交处除了防疫之外呢韩正是很有代表性的他终究还是习近平身边非常重要的一人马像何立峰或者留刘鹤何立峰作为刘贺的接班人也是非常有代表性的一个在东南亚一个在美国你认为代表性好当然其实我觉得在这个交流当中啊有一点是美国一直想要拉拢嗯但是这题没有看到任何我不我觉得我其实我认为没有任何的竞争几乎没有任何的进展虽然呢美国敲锣打鼓地说中美之间已经进入了这个军这个盒子相关的条约的对话嗯那你要注意那个是外交部澄清嗯但是美国的国务院然后跟中国大陆的外交部底下的军武思然后去对话那一个有关于盒子相关的这一些相关对话而且对话完了之后美国自己这里也说中国大陆没有答应任何的事情然后也没有要记录任何细节的条约谈判嗯那么所以呢现在我们看到说美国国防部长奥斯汀一直在喊话说希望能够赶快跟这个中国大陆的新任的国防部长会面嗯讲起来好像是说哦因为你没有国防部长所以我们才没有办法进入实质讨论但现实显然不是因为我们就看到另外一边呢是中国大陆现在实质的国防部门的负责人张勇加入就行对啊因为他是居委会的副主席对他的人到了莫斯科了嗯那么在这一段期间有几件事情要观察的是俄罗斯在11月7号宣布退出从1990年就签署的欧洲常规武装力量条约他退出了那他今年二月的时候呢他其实就已经拒绝履行美俄的限武条约嗯同时呢俄罗斯的国会呢也在这几天呢宣布就不再遵守这一个核子试爆条约这次盒子是保条约然后我们又看到CA从卫星当中看到中国美国俄罗斯的核试爆厂都在扩建当中嗯所以现在是一个新的合作武器的平衡点出现了吗呃他不是平衡点因为因为那个平衡点在哪里我们并不知道可是那是在脚力点对就是说当Austin当奥斯汀因为美国媒体呢在在前天的报道这就是美国国防部长奥斯汀已经正式向中方提出要求希望在11月16日我们刚刚讲习拜会就是说今年的iPad都是13到15对13到15日结束之后的16日就就就是了东盟的这样的一个安全论坛在印尼的安全论坛要要上场那我我认为美国也很清楚的知道因为在印尼所以中国应该是会派人来的一定会一定会过会派这个中国跟印尼的关系现在是很好的所以呢他就提出这个要求说那我希望更多的方法见面可是中国现在呢是还没有防长的石张又侠的位置呢比方防长要要来的更高一些了好那Austin呢是说希望16日在印尼雅加达举行的东协访扩大会议直接跟中国新任的防长见面恢复了美中的这个两个两个军的高层的交流好那美中的官员呢他们其实在六号的时候前天的时候呢也已经呢举举行了在华府举行了核武管控问题举行了一天的会谈虽然这个柜台是在司长程成绩的而且是外教结晶硅的可是他很重要为为什么第一个是今年二月之后中美之间的军事交流终止之后重新恢复了启动的动作第二个是中美在谈核武重点是谈核武重点是美国要求弹劾五对好那Austin的这样子一个一个请求也彩排了就是中美之间的军事对话我们刚刚提到的就是说刚刚刚刚提到就是中美之间呢最最近的双边互动里面就包含了包含了就是海洋事务拉以及中美军控和防扩散磋商在军事上面这一这次呢你看他谈的这两个主题一个是军控一个是防扩散因为国家和吴勇对因为会谈到扩散基本上就是完全是核武的议题但中国对于有关于核武器的问题中国有所谓的三原则三三不他不是公开讲的但是中国一定会做这个立场表达一个呢一个就是呢反对对没有核武器的国家使用核武器第二个呢就是呢反对核试爆第三个就是说希望大家呢都能够呢终极目标是要把所有的核武呢都拆掉这是中国中国的三个目标那美国跟俄罗斯不同不会可是呢为什么这个很重要是因为刚过父亲提到的光是这个心情的是时间俄罗斯就撕掉了两份的协议对特别是这两份的协议呢有一个一份就刚刚提到的就是说俄罗斯呢宣布退出禁止核试爆的条约那布林肯说的啊这个朝错误的方向呢卖卖进这个是不是不对的其实曹负方向迈进的是美国你看美国在一八的问题一直在错误的方向上面但是美国不会讲自己了第二个就是说俄罗斯还推出了什么在这个前天但罗斯宣布退出欧洲常规武装力量条约这不是核武但是常规武装力量条约在讲什么就是这个条约呢是在一呃要求俄罗斯和北约都不能够把军队部署在大量的军队部署在双方交界的地方避免引起另外一方的紧张引起误解这个是常规的力量就是你明明知道北约的存在呢是对抗俄罗斯俄罗斯的不安全感也来自北约可是呢这个常规武装力量就是说为了避免大家平常莫名其妙的紧张所以呢我们都把都把这个军队的部署往后撤不要部署在边界的地方但是俄罗斯说乌克兰战争都打成这个样子了你们都已经进场我们都已经是在间接的在交战的这个没有没有意思撕了好那你说的那俄罗斯撕掉两个人两边是俄罗斯很可恶不其实其实你要你要去质疑俄罗斯啊可能你还得要把历史再拉长一点因为2001年的时候呢美国呢美国率先撕掉了就是呢房就是呃反飞淡淡道条约哦那这个反馈但对台湾就是因为美国要发展萨德系所以系统他要发展它的对因为呢那个就是说呢反反弹道飞弹的条约就是在防御系统上面来讲呢你的你的发展跟你的部署我们用条约签署大家呢过去我们为什么会说呢美俄之间呢在冷战体系下面这个相互保证毁灭诸如这个就是我们的都拥有很强的核武器的攻击攻击力量而且我们签签约我们不要强化自己的防卫力量因此呢你只要敢对我动手我一定我也一定要对你动手那叫相互保证毁灭可是美国在2001年因为俄罗斯那个时候已经已经很不行了美国根本就不鸟俄罗斯所以美国呢把那个就是说呢反反弹道飞弹的条约美国就撕了那份的条约呢是美国在二战之后呢第一次撕掉一份重要的合约所以你不要认为呢到了到了到了这个就是说川普的时候呢美国才大量的退退群阿斯合约到2001年就开始2001年的总统是谁小布希嗯小布希时代就开始了第二个美国呢在撕掉了第二份的合约你记不记得在2018年还是2019年川普的时候川普撕掉了俄罗斯跟了北约之间非常重要的平衡那叫做中程导弹型病那个中程导弹的协定就是俄罗斯跟北约都不能够发展或部署中程导弹因为中程导弹你没办法防御就是你一旦有了中程导弹之后那我只好人身身高我自己的建议世界杯因为中程导弹在这么近的距离之内它是没有办法防的所以呢就不可以呢发展的中程导弹还比较容易房结果呢美国呢在2018年他撕掉了这份协议撕掉这份协议的理由是什么就是光我光我们我美国跟俄罗斯谈有什么用中国是现在全世界中程导弹最厉害的它中国都不在这个协议里面光我们两个谈有什么用它在中国的角度来讲那个是你俄罗斯跟你欧洲北约是关我什么事儿那中程导弹对了中中国现在之所以这是在军事上面变得很有威吓力就是管理周围的岛屿你的你的你的刺猬等等如何的部署我的中程导弹的精准度以及密集度确实让美国睡不着觉所以美国在2019年他撕合约之后隔一个礼拜他就开始了测试他的中程导弹了因此当这两份合约都撕掉的时候你在怪俄罗斯说俄罗斯你为什么是这两份合约我说你怎么前面的这两件事啊所以俄罗斯是跟在后面的好吧那到这一步为我为止你可以讲说饿罗斯和西方国家之间三份最重要跟核武器防御有有关的条约都都漂亮现在都都没有了嗯所以现在呢其实是在巨星级他最最近几天没有听他讲话巨星级会很感慨就是说他在一九1970年代的所有的有关于大国政治的努力所设定起来的那个就是说飞和避免核战争的框架到此刻为止已经全部呢都拆掉了因此刚刚奉新提到就就就是很多的是真正贡献者是美国也好俄罗斯也好包括中国在内的核试验场试戏呢都开始有恢复活动的迹象因此大家就要知道就是现在的中美俄正在进行新一轮的全球的核武器管控对话的准备阶段那你听到Austin的呼吁的时候Austin是呼吁就是每周尽快展开有关核武的会谈但是当Austin在呼吁的时候那问题来了他又想要为什么跑跑到莫斯科去他跑去莫斯科我们说了你们不是上个礼拜才见过面吗今天也才不过11月9号香山论坛是十月底的时候十月底绍伊古才刚参加了香山论坛不是吗但你张又侠主持香山论坛不是刚跟绍伊古见面吗为什么见了面马上又跑又跑去了那普京也接见这也很奇怪啊普京呢在上个月半个月之前你才能参加一带一路峰会是不是会上的嘉宾啊那为什么有时候又跑去张伟霞去他为什么说啊中美关系很重要对但是我认为你们真正的核心论点就是帮我去特别跑莫斯科再跑这一趟不需要跑这一趟的时候谈什么并不是重点重点就是告诉你就是当我要跟你Austin见面之前的时候让你莫斯科安心所以你反而是在铺成一个中美的国防上面的最高负责人嗯而且面的一个前头的一个铺陈吗对我我我认为张又侠这次跑莫斯科就就是在为跟奥斯汀见面在做转型准备所以呢所以中国就是中美俄的核子武器的大谈判那种力对就是从俄罗斯的角度来讲我我觉得我觉得中国是很了解俄罗斯的造门因为俄罗斯在整个冷战之后的崩盘是跟美国的连中制度的战略成功是有关的就是整个几星级的成功在冷战当中最后导致1991年整个的苏联体系的崩溃年终制度的是一个最成功的战略所以当今天呢中国的军方要和美国的军方高层要开始谈核武器的时候你是俄罗斯紧不紧建造俄罗斯会觉得又来了嘛所以呢让让俄罗斯安心就是说不我们不会这样子做中日之间的关系呢是最最重要张热茶专程跑这一趟让俄罗斯呢安心强化中俄之间的互信但它真正的含义就是中美之间的核武对话要开始嗯好所以呢当然我们也知道说中美之间现在呢很多军事上面的对话机制其实都没有回复嗯而且很多其实是更早期的比如说在联合参谋部的对话机制在2017年设置的可是呢之后和年这个中美贸易战爆发嗯然后呢这个中国大陆就已经搁置了这个这个磋商然后国防磋商1997年设置的那其实现在呢也已经完全停摆了去年佩洛西呃摆台这件事情所取消的对话包括了中美两军战区领导对通话中美国防部工作会晤对话然后以及中美海上军事安全磋商机制嗯现在都没有重新开始嗯所以他有属于中美的在海上空中接近的时候的处理机制磋商机制这是我们现在所看到的双方开始会互相指责说你太靠近我啊我太靠近你啊等等之类的然后呢中国大陆会觉得说那高兴为你叠纪侦查否则的话怎么会有接近事件嗯类似像这样的情况可是后面还有一个更大的有关于核子武器的和平衡点谈判角力其实才要展开而已好我们我们今天谈核武器哦因为我我也很清楚的知道大部分人对核武器是缺乏思考的就只知道呢它的杀伤力很大但对是很可怕但是在大国之间呢是怎么去去处理核武器的是每个每个强者国家的最核心的安全问题那但是下一个阶段的全球的核武的对话它跟过去的不同就是前一波的核武的对话是以美俄两个长征国家的冷战的两极体系的对话所以当美俄说了算因为在那个时空里面9%九十几的核弹头都在每个的手里面英国跟法国或者中国数量都非常少所以呢美俄讲定了之后那个框架大概就定了可是就像美国最近不断的美国每一年呢对中国军力报告的提法都都会强调中国的核弹头的数量似乎正在增加当中从三百颗然后告诉你现在可能有五百当然就是可能了因为中方没有任何这方面的讯息他们推测到2030年在在六六年之后中国的核弹头数量大概会到一千颗对如果你相对于美俄来讲美俄大概现在都有五千5700克八百克左右的核弹头但是常规部署的大概呢都是1500克嗯常规部署大概1400多所以中国如果用核弹头的数量到一千颗其实跟美乐常规部署的核弹头数量就很接近了第二个就是说它不只是弹头的数量而已就是弹头的数量就是说呢这些的核武器当然是一回事事情而是中国的投射的工具是新的因此中国的投射的距离跟精准度以及呢被拦截的可能性是很低的所以在这种的基础上面中国的核武器不是光是数弹头数弹头你有几颗而是同样的弹头参数数量我穿破你的防御的系统达成有效的吓阻的那个能力可能比俄罗斯都要好就反反飞弹对嗯好那我们先来接不到我们我们现在呢现在在关注有关于核武器的问题的原因是因为这其实这几年的时间我觉得我们有理由会很扩散而焦虑除了像是朝鲜大概已经拥有自己的核武器第二个就是伊朗也在核武器的边缘你有没有注意到最近的以巴冲突的时候呢以色列的一个一个官员说我用核武器炸你结果呢就虽然虽然呢那个雅虎赶快救出来的so伤口说没有他等于在间接证实以色列真的有核武器嫌疑的而且呢敢于上一场的小规模的冲突里面扬言就是我要使用核武器这么的嚣张但是它过过去的一段时间里面所有的全球的和控制不但没有因为奥巴马当选拿到诺贝尔和平奖变得缓和相反的由于几件大事情而大家呢把它放在脑子里因为接下去的谈判那个是被中药被一个就就就是美国决定出售核动力潜舰给澳洲对这个其实是一个广义的核扩散第二个俄罗斯已经公开证实他已经把核弹头呢部署到了白俄罗斯嗯这个一样是很快这是今年的一个城发展对那这两件事是事情呢都非常的重要再来呢就是就是我们刚刚讲的就是以色列以色列的恐吓他可能呢要使用核武器因此有关于核武器的使用你千万不要认为说除了日本爱过的两个原子弹之后这世界上不会再有了原原子弹在地面上面会爆炸了并不是说这样今天的气氛我我觉得新的一场的核核竞赛正在展开而主要的player有两个变成三个是大事情而周围又有许多其他的次要的国家包括印度啊巴基斯坦他们都已经拥有核武器了所以接下去的和管控的风险是必要的难度是很高的而最主要是中国进场最后我们还是要谈一下以色列跟当前的一个情况嘛那现在呢这是以色列的总理纳坦亚虎他是在接受ABC就是美国广播电视台专访的时候公司新闻网专访的时候呢他说当战争结束了之后给你更加大走廊的战争结束之后以色列将无限期地担负起全面安全责任那这句话什么意思他虽然没有讲占理但全世界都知道说那其实就是在里面就是你的军队就部署在那个地方就是一个完全的占领对其实就跟现在约旦河西岸你要什么土地你就拿什么土地嗯然后你要做什么事情你就做什么事情嗯你随时在那边呢可以打人啊杀人啊也就在约旦河西岸是不时发生的事然后你就你就可以这么做那所以美国很紧张立刻跳出来讲说说美国反对以色列永久占领加沙走廊嗯可是他到现在为止不可呼吁停火那么他到现在为止就连要暂时性的人道停火以色列都不搭的嗯你觉得他能够阻止以色列永久占领加沙走廊吗没有办法我我觉得就是美国美国就就只是讲一讲而已美国是不敢对他爸爸真的做什么强制性的动作的在美国的国内没有这种政治环境我说政治环境美国的舆论大家拜以色列的气氛是很浓厚的可是那个政治环境并不存在那那唐亚胡现在所摆出来的姿态他其实就是借着这一次表面上面是修理哈马斯而是彻彻底底的打灭了巴勒斯坦建国的最后形状就是这场的加沙的攻击结束了之后不止哈马斯会被消灭以色列一定会歼灭哈马斯即使现在看起来在军事上面以色列也付出了一些代价可是既然已经打到这样国际舆论对我以色列反感没有问题但是我一定要达到我的目的所以他不歼灭不停手它不会停手他一定是造造成一个永远不可恢复的既成事实那在以色列跟佳佳法跟约旦河西岸的环境来讲老师说其他没有任何的外在力量有能力介入这个区域里面去约束以色列顶多只有美国而已而美国就直接讲空话布林肯呢在前两天的时间在中东走这一趟在走之前我们就跟大家讲他来这个地方呢只只是进一步的语带威胁地话中有话的警告就是其他的所有的国家都不要动手这个是以色列自己的事儿那你这个表面上美国呢是在劝以色列你不要这样不要那样但是我说了全世界每一个国家呢都可以呢对以色列进行道德劝说可是你美国不不可以美国呢不能只有道德劝说因此你因为你是唯一能够约束以色列的国家但是那狼牙我吃了秤砣铁了心你说他疯了也好你说他要说行自己的野心也好他一定会让他在九月份在联合国秀的那张以色列的地图变成真的就是只剩下一个国家只剩下一个国家就是以色列在巴勒斯坦人原始的土地上面只剩下以色列一个国家没有什么两国方案你们怎么讲都没有用坦白说当政治现实是这样的时候一段时间我相信以色列是很懂得了只要我真的把哈马斯灭了家加上就没有任何可以跟我对抗的力量而袈裟这么小它就是一个大型超大型的露天难民营接下去的所谓的安全管控那就是这个地方归我管以后呢甚至于所有要进出加沙都是要经过以色列的同意那阿巴斯最近为为什么西方的好几个媒体呢同时传出来阿巴斯呢受到了暗杀行动的攻击他们终于也看懂阿巴斯不过就是个傀儡政权而已那个阿巴斯就是当需要表现出有人代表巴勒斯坦出来谈的时候阿巴斯就会被拱出来可是阿巴斯没有任何的角色没有任何的能力他的说明约旦河西岸早就已经不是巴勒斯坦人的
Religious War
在中国决不会有的战争就是宗教战争.
One type of war that will never happen in China is a religious war.
我无意中看到孟晚舟的手掌纹是断掌. 我的手掌上, 在天线与地线中间有十字纹, 就是会有神密的力量.
They are creating Hemas on the daily basis. History is coming back. Why did Japan wanted to invaded China? Population. People gets more and more. Where more Japanese can go. The first thing Japanese thought about their neighbor. Naking Masscar, 250 thousand Chinese were killed. They had a competition killing. They throw up a baby in the air and let the baby fell on the stgger on his gun. There was a photo. Here this photo were the criminals during the war. They competed each other and see who could kill Chinese civilians more. Only this masscurd, 250 civilian people died.
Tuesday, November 7, 2023
It's a big joke
There was an American family acarya. This acarya emailed a person and said, 'I want to review your lesson.' The American family acarya didn't know how to sit in the lotus position. Even so, did they know how to do it properly? They didn't know how to meditate, nor did they know how to sit in the lotus position and meditate. And they want to teach people how to meditate. Who do they think they are?
Monday, November 6, 2023
美元指数
美元指数要跌三个月, 台股就会涨三个月.
The US dollar index will fall for three months, the Taiwan stock market will rise to Lunar year.
Wednesday, November 1, 2023
How many people were killed during wwii?
Estimates of the number of Chinese people killed by the Japanese during World War II vary, but it is widely accepted that the number is in the millions. The most commonly cited figure is around 7-10 million Chinese civilians and soldiers, although some estimates go even higher. These deaths occurred as a result of various factors, including the Second Sino-Japanese War (1937-1945), the Nanking Massacre (also known as the Rape of Nanking) in 1937, forced labor, and other atrocities committed by Japanese forces during the war.
The Holocaust, which occurred during World War II, led to the systematic persecution and murder of approximately six million Jews by Nazi Germany and its collaborators. This tragic event is one of the most well-documented genocides in history, and the figure of six million is widely accepted by historians and scholars as an estimate of the number of Jewish people who were killed during the Holocaust. It's important to remember that in addition to Jews, other minority groups, such as Romani people, disabled individuals, and political dissidents, also suffered and were killed by the Nazis during this time. The Holocaust stands as a dark chapter in human history, and its memory is a solemn reminder of the consequences of hatred, prejudice, and discrimination.
China saved 20,000 Jewish people during wwii. They lived and stayed in Shanghai, China. Some were married and had their own family in Shanghai.
Now, due hatrde is creating in Palastine.
Monday, October 23, 2023
The United States likes to choke someone's neck
10/31
马斯克在讲利率,TESLA曾经是高毛利的代表,没有人在讲利率,当MASK谈毛利率非常高的时候,2%,3%,怕讲出来被人家笑,有太大差别吗?没有。相反的我,我很希望在美国可以看到华为的手机,比亚迪的电动车。看中国电动车在德国的车展大放异彩,在东京的车展也一样。比亚迪的评价好的原因是什么?就是发现比亚迪或者说中国的电动车,他有那种日本车的体贴和细腻。你光看制造业的部分来讲,把7巨人摆在一起,是不对的,七巨人里面的真正说到中国影响的,都是制造业, 现在美国的这些的指标企业,受到政治的干扰,非经济因素干扰太大。美国的这些的企业如果不能够好好地思考, 为什么我们被美国现在的政府搞来莫名其妙的,就是说商业经营的脉络里的政治因素, 美国政府凭什么管我那么多?为什么把我们带进了一个政治逻辑里面,以至于我们这些企业现在呢?所有的竞争策略,先思考的都是非经济因素,而不是经济因素。我们在科技上面曾经有竞争力,就像是NVIDIA,在商业竞争技术上有竞争力,可是被美国政府卡脖子了, 那是你必须要去跟美国政府谈的,因为中国因素在这里面,非经济因素在里面,这才是真正的问题所在, 什么利率等等都不是重点。真正的重点,就是美国政府因为中国的关系,让政治凌驾一切.
习与普丁是今天少有的政治领袖, 中国之幸, 苏俄之幸,普丁在接受央视访问,他再来中国,在那一带一路之前的时候,央视在克里姆林宫在在莫斯科访问他,就提到听说中国的商品最近在俄罗斯卖的非常好,普京说很多人都搞错,不是因为很多的西方的商品而撤出去了,所以中国的商品卖得好。他说他的很多朋友用了中国的商品,包括电动车之后,他说中国的商品太牛了.
传音是专为非洲人钻研出的手机
美国喜欢卡别人的脖子,在晶片的这一块,就是如此,10月17号又公布了半导体的管制的新规定,对于AI晶片,NVIDIA针对中国大陆有特工晶片A800跟H800芯片不能进口,NVIDIA说我们可能被迫要迁出其他国家,但是美国半导体协会说拜登政府的举措真的威胁到整个美国半导体产业,事实上如果大家看看上个礼拜,美国的股票市场,你会发现科技股是跌的,而且跌的非常重,因为当美国使得跟美国做生意的或者是美国本身的半导体产业的国家,不能跟中国大陆做生意的时候,是他们自己先失掉市场,先失掉利润空间,更先失掉了可以把他的前期的研发经验的经费,可以借着去卖给中国大陆的客户摊平,这个研发机会的可能性,所以无论是你前期的研发的经费,后来的制造的成本跟企业最后的获利,通通受影响,那么这样的一个产业,难道对美国真正好吗?美国半导体产业在问道这些政治人物,因为政治人物一拍脑袋说,我这样做了,我可以阻止我的对手往前突飞猛进,对不起,你去看一下比亚迪,你去看一下华为手机,你会发现你每一次所画的这些界限,并没有挡住你的对手,反而你使得他们一定要突破你给他的限制,好比说我们上一次在讲risk V原来你一开头是Intel独大的世界,就是只有Intel一个最上面的这个结构,接着呢那个英国的a chord computer后来变成ARM,ARM 变成第二个,Intel全部都是要授权的,ARM说我有一部分开源可是有一部分我要授权,收你的授权费,但是已经比全部都闭门要好很多,所以ARM变成第二个体系,当你要继续的去控制的时候,就出现了risk, risk V 比 ARM 更开源,更开放,更多的人可以合力共建,一起去创造,所以这些东西,都是美国只要试图去阻挡其他国家的发展,它就失掉了自己的市场,自己的机会,自己绝对的控制权,可以看出来,你就要开大门走大路,还是你要继续小院高墙,会对你国家利益比较好吗?也许现在你有一些短期的利益,但是长期来讲, 中国人自己干,决不靠你。美國喜歡卡別人的脖子,在晶片的這一塊,就是如此,10月17號又公佈了半導體的管制的新規定,對於AI晶片,NVIDIA針對中國大陸有特工晶片A800跟H800晶元不能進口,NVIDIA說我們可能被迫要遷出其他國家,但是美國半導體協會說拜登政府的舉措真的威脅到整個美國半導體產業,事實上如果大家看看上個禮拜,美國的股票市場, 你會發現科技股是跌的,而且跌的非常重,因為當美國使得跟美國做生意的或者是美國本身的半導體產業的國家,不能跟中國大陸做生意的時候,是他們自己先失掉市場,先失掉利潤空間,更先失掉了可以把他的前期的研發經驗的經費,可以藉著去賣給中國大陸的客戶攤平,這個研發機會的可能性,所以無論是你前期的研發的經費,後來的製造的成本跟企業最後的獲利, 通通受影響,那麼這樣的一個產業,難道對美國真正好嗎? 美國半導體產業在問道這些政治人物,因為政治人物一拍腦袋說,我這樣做了,我可以阻止我的對手往前突飛猛進,對不起,你去看一下比亞迪,你去看一下華為手機,你會發現你每一次所畫的這些界限,並沒有擋住你的對手,反而你使得他們一定要突破你給他的限制,好比說我們上一次在講risk V原來你一開頭是Intel獨大的世界, 就是只有Intel一個最上面的這個結構,接著呢那個英國的a chord computer後來變成ARM,ARM 變成第二個,Intel全部都是要授權的,ARM說我有一部分開源可是有一部分我要授權,收你的授權費,但是已經比全部都閉門要好很多,所以ARM變成第二個體系,當你要繼續的去控制的時候,就出現了risk, risk V 比 ARM 更開源, 更開放,更多的人可以合力共建,一起去創造,所以這些東西,都是美國只要試圖去阻擋其他國家的發展,它就失掉了自己的市場,自己的機會,自己絕對的控制權,可以看出來,你就要開大門走大路,還是你要繼續小院高牆,會對你國家利益比較好嗎? 也許現在你有一些短期的利益,但是長期來講, 中國人自己干,決不靠你。
The United States likes to choke someone's neck, especially in the field of microchips. On October 17th, they announced new regulations on semiconductor control. Regarding AI chips, NVIDIA has restrictions on importing certain chips like the A800 and H800 into mainland China. NVIDIA mentioned that they might be forced to move their operations to other countries. However, the American Semiconductor Association argues that the Biden administration's actions are a real threat to the entire U.S. semiconductor industry.
In fact, if you look at the stock market in the U.S. over the past week, you'll notice that tech stocks have seen significant drops. When the U.S. prevents countries that do business with them or are part of their semiconductor industry from doing business with mainland China, it's these countries that first lose their market, profit margins, and the ability to distribute their previous R&D expenses to Chinese customers. This affects both their upfront research costs, manufacturing costs, and the final profitability of their companies.
So, is this kind of policy really good for the U.S.? The U.S. semiconductor industry is questioning these political decisions because when politicians make snap decisions to try to hinder their competitors, they might believe they can hold them back. However, if you look at companies like BYD and Huawei, you'll see that these boundaries do not stop competitors. Instead, they force them to break through the limitations imposed on them. For example, when we talk about RISC-V, originally, the world was dominated by Intel, with only Intel at the top. Later, a UK company, Acorn Computer, became ARM, the second player. ARM was partly open-source but required licensing for some parts, which meant you had to pay licensing fees. However, it was more open than completely closed, so ARM became the second system. When you try to control something further, that's when RISC-V appeared. RISC-V is even more open, more open-source, and more people can collaborate together to create it. These things show that when the U.S. tries to hinder the development of other countries, it loses its own market, opportunities, and control.
In the end, you have to ask whether it's better for your country's interests to open doors and walk on the wider road or continue with a closed-off approach. Perhaps you have some short-term gains, but in the long run, the Chinese will do it themselves and won't rely on you.
Sunday, October 22, 2023
What food is good for AloVera?
美国喜欢卡别人的脖子,在晶片的这一块,就是如此,10月17号又公布了半导体的管制的新规定,对于AI晶片,因为我们都知道NVIDIA针对中国大陆有特工晶片A800跟H800芯片不能进口,NVIDIA说我们可能被迫要迁出其他国家,但是美国半导体协会说拜登政府的举措真的威胁到整个美国半导体产业,事实上如果大家看看上个礼拜,美国的股票市场,你会发现科技股是跌的,而且跌的非常重,因为当美国使得跟美国做生意的或者是美国本身的半导体产业的国家,不能跟中国大陆做生意的时候,是他们自己先失掉市场,先失掉利润空间,更先失掉了可以把他的前期的研发经验的经费,可以借着去卖给中国大陆的客户摊平,这个研发机会的可能性,所以无论是你前期的研发的经费,,后来的制造的成本跟最后的企业获利,通通受影响,那么这样的一个产业,难道对美国真正好吗?这是美国半导体产业在问道这些政治人物,因为政治人物一拍脑袋说,我这样做了,我可以阻止我的对手往前突飞猛进,对不起,你去看一下比亚迪,你去看一下华为手机,你会发现你每一次所画的这些界限,并没有挡住你的对手,反而你使得他们一定要突破你给他的限制,好比说我们上一次在讲risk V原来你一开头是Intel独大的世界,就是只有Intel一个最上面的这个结构,接着呢那个英国的a chord computer后来变成ARM,ARM 变成第二个,Intel全部都是要授权的,ARM说我有一部分开源可是有一部分我要授权,收你的授权费,但是已经比全部都闭门要好很多,所以ARM变成第二个体系,当你要继续的去控制的时候,就出现了risk比ARM 更开源,它让它更开放,更多的人可以合力共建,一起去创造,所以这些东西,都是美国只要试图去阻挡其他国家的发展,它就失掉了自己的市场,自己的机会,自己绝对的控制权,可以看出来,你就要开大门走大路,还是你要继续小院高墙,会对你国家利益比较好吗?也许现在你有一些短期的利益,但是长期来讲, 中国人自己干,决不靠你。
see what kind of work here when i came to Ameirca?
The best fertilizers to use are liquid 10-40-10 houseplant mixes, or mixes designed specifically for succulents. Avoid granular fertilizers. If your aloe is in a container, water it thoroughly the day before feeding. This should flush out any lingering salts and reduce the risk of tip burn.
猥瑣,猥尾瑣影
10/22/23
Mirabaii, said i'm new here i don't know many things. means Racism. groupism, small circle, etc.
Uighur, There are so many Moslem temple. Population is getting so large than 30 years ago. Westerners said genicide. The guy said that. He never went to Sinjiang before. He was never been there. They paid him to say something. So he took the money and saying something about Sinjiang in his report. it's a joke.
NATO easternward five times forced Russia to claim war again Ukraine. Ukrain has Nazi camp to torture Russian people. It's not fair to claim Russia invade Ukraine. NATO did the wrong thing in the very begining.
Now, Israel same thing, on the West Bank of Jordan river. Israel 蚕食此地, Palistinian people living area getting smaler and smaller. Now, there are 650,000 people living in Western bank. All these area should returned to Palistianan.
你们少跟我来这一套, 欺人太甚.
You don't use this on me. It's too much.
Thursday, October 19, 2023
我在美国的故事
Is another Great Depression imminent? Over the past year, the interest rate for a 3-month bond has exceeded that of a 10-year bond, with the longest such period lasting 15.3 months. This suggests that it could be underway already or persist until the first quarter of next year.
美国有很多小瘪三, 就是我前些时候说的不是东西的人, 故事就从这个瘪三,不是个东西说起,这个小瘪三,稍年轻的时候,娶了个日本小女孩做媳妇,两三年前见过他媳妇很年轻,他本人看了就知道是个老头,又是个瘪三,想当然尔,这个老头,仗着他是美国白人, 一支鲜花插在牛粪上;像这种情形, 这个年轻的女孩怎么会跟他处得长久,三年前回日本去了,他身体毛病又多,前些时候看到他,脸色看来还算好,日本媳妇儿在的时候,脸色非常难看,可能房事太多吧?初见这个人的时候, 就对这个人没有什么好感。
巴勒斯坦人到现在为止有五千多人死亡,包括了两千多个孩童。我要问美国,要等到多少人死了才够?你才赞成停火。
赵地零亲中亲到一丝不挂, 利害.
中东问题
巴以冲突十天了,感觉上非常令人难过,这个是自从二次大战结束以来,在国际中可以说是最严重的问题,没有之一,他搅乱了非常多的人,在地区上在世界上甚至地球上的所有人都跟这件事情有直接或间接的关系,巴以之间的冲突的的确确是一个人伦上的大悲剧,很多人认为巴以冲突根本就没有解决的方案,我自己非常注意有关于这场冲突的起因和过程,我也承认这的确确是一个很复杂的问题,这个问题复杂的程度,因为它不仅仅是种族的问题,也不仅仅是宗教的问题,也不仅仅是历史的问题,甚至于它不仅是政治法律的问题,更不要说它不仅仅是军事实力上的问题,在这么多复杂的情况下我觉得巴以的冲突俨然已经形成了一个从哲学观点可以来分析这场冲突内容的问题,我有这个想法,不单纯是因为我是一个哲学家,更是因为我听到了中国的外交部部长王毅,一直不断的非常清楚的说明中国面对巴以冲突的态度,我讲到这个观点,并不是想企图替咱们中国人做宣传,而是完全针对他所讲的内容来进行一个哲学上的分析,只有从哲学这个高度来讲才能够站得住脚,才能够了解到受害的是不但是巴勒斯坦人,也是以色列人,甚至是全世界所有的,只有从哲学这个高度来讲才能够站得住脚,才能够了解到受害的,不但是巴勒斯坦人,也是以色列人,甚至是全世界所有的人,都在不能够拉高自己的高度来认知这个问题,草草地认为他没有解答的时候所出现的结果,王毅说了什么?王毅说面对这场冲突,我们只有四个原则,第一和平,第二公义,第三国际法,第四人道主义;这四个里面和平公义,国际法,人道主义很明显的都是哲学概念,什么叫做和平?是一个文化的精神,尤其是儒家文化中以和为贵的精神,我们会强调合而不同,就是在尊重彼此之间的不相同,要追求共同的和平,儒家文化讲究和平,所以才会有礼运大同篇里面,强调世界大同的理念的和平,是使得世界成为大同的基础,也是最重要的起点,没有和平, 谈什么大同?谈到和平的同时,让我想起来一个非常重要的观点,中国人讲和平的时候,并不是说能够挨打,能够忍耐,有一句从马斯克讲出来的话是非常具有哲学意涵的,他说你要追求和平的过程当中一定要比你的对手强大,强大到你可以原谅他,虽然说我们中国人讲的这个和平文化,是要维持和平,但是同时也要不受欺负,很多人一聊到巴以之间的冲突,就想到这种移情作用,想到今天巴勒斯坦人受到的欺负,受到的侮辱,面对的悲惨,好像是150年前的中国,那种情况下,中国没有实力跟人家对抗,光谈和平有什么用处,所以说外交部长王毅所谈到的和平,这个原则是要说是真正强大的地方,要有这种胸襟,要有这种文化,要有这种态度,要能够原谅对方,这样子才会有和平,这才是真正的和平,如果没有做到这一步,单凭以色列犹太人,这种以牙还牙以眼还眼的这种态度,你杀我一个人,我就要杀你一百个人,作为报复就这种情况,让大家会觉得和平真的是遥遥无期,那更不要说是帝国主义了,或是安格鲁萨克森人的这种有机会欺负人,绝不放弃机会的这种情况下,这哪有和平可言,所以和平是非常重要的,而且最重要的是你要有和平的文化,没有和平的文化,你只会想到欺负人,那怎么可能呢,冤冤相报何时了,那你当然没有解决的方案。第二个公义,公理正义,公义是人最重要的德行,为什么会这样讲,因为在学校所有的课程里头,或者所有的跟哲学有关的理解当中,或者你看到的新闻当中,最明显的德行,就是以想要别人对待你的态度来对待他人,所以说是这个就是公义,公义的定义,公义的基本定义就是公平,你在这种情况之下,你想要让别人对你好,没有问题,你要先对别人好,或者彼此之间要平等,这个就叫做公义,没有人愿意活在不公不义的环境之中,对不对?这是一个很明显的事实,我为什么因为公义是人最基本最重要的德行,这个大家都会感觉到,很明显,如果你能够活在一个社会当中,这个社会一定要维持起码的公平与正义,这个就叫做公义,如果没有办法让你能得到公平的机会,没有办法能够得到正义的对待,你一定会起来抗暴,会反抗,所以说这也是第二点非常重要。第三个国际法,什么叫做国际法?坦白来讲,法律原来它的基本精神是国内的,为什么会出现了国际法,这个是非常重要的国际法,是一个理性选择下的结果,这是谁的观点?这是德国哲学家康德的观点,他认为人类要达到国际上全世界的永久和平,这个最重要的观点就是大家要用理性的思维,共同的想法,理性的思维就已经包含了公理正义,包含了和平,这个是一个最重要的观点,这是一个理性的结果,所以说每一次世界大战结束以后,一次大战结束以后要成立国联国际联盟,二次大战结束以后要成立联合国,为什么只有在大战之后才成立这种国际组织,来维持和平的,因为经过战争的残酷,经过非理性的对待,经过非理性的杀戮,甚至于这种种族的灭绝,各式各样的残忍的想法跟做法,以后大家发觉必须要回归理性,回归理性的第一步一定要成立一个国际组织,这个就是国联跟联合国的诞生的理由,同时最重要的只要有国际法,有国际法庭,国际法是针对国与国之间的冲突,认为国与国之间的冲突,人民与人民之间的冲突,这种种族之间的冲突,是有一个共同的基础,这个基础让他们可以沟通,让他们可以接受共同的规范,这个共同规范的结果就叫做国际法;如果没有这个东西大家只记得种族之间的差异,历史的仇恨,宗教上的对立,政治上的这种制度上的这种差别,那么你还会用什么样的结果?你当然会有不同的法律了解,所以说一定要强调国际法,国际法重要的不是法律,是国际那两个字,想要达到国际中任何具体的成果,你一定要有理性,作为出发的重点,这个就叫做国际法;你必须要遵守国际法,因为它是一个人类共同理性的认知;第四点人道主义,人道主义是人之所以为人的根本,大家要知道,人之所以为人人跟动物不一样,其实人跟动物非常相像,人的外表,生理,特征,甚至于说是喜怒哀乐各种情况跟动物都差不多,但是有一点非常不一样,人天生就是道德的动物,除了自保之外,还有怜悯心,人不能够看到别人受苦受难,要能够彻底的解决巴勒斯坦所在这加萨走廊的问题,要北方的巴勒斯坦人,在24小时内,一百万人迁移到南加萨地区,联合国说不可能,这种情况下,说时间一到,我们就直接采取围攻的政策,坦克车,步兵全部进入,大家要了解加萨人真的很可怜,以色列的国防部长讲,我们断水断电断食物断药品,资源呢?没水没电没食物没药品,资源你不用叫他迁移他都活不下去了,人对人的态度,比公理正义还要直接,为什么因为我们有怜悯心,我坦白讲,我没去过以色列,更不要说是加萨走廊,但是我在所有的视频上,所有的社交媒体上,看到的那些视频,看到那些照片,看到各式各样悲惨的故事,不单单是巴勒斯坦人的悲惨故事,以色列人也有很多人被杀,我都很难过,我都会感觉到这个冤冤相报何时了?这个说明了一个重点,就算基于我本身的本能,当我的自保问题不成问题的时候,我的怜悯心就自然因为这些视频与照片,油然而生,我就不愿意看到这些东西,这个叫人道主义,就是说本身来讲的话,你会想到你自己吃饱了,你会想到那些还没吃饱的人,你自己不受冻,你会想到那些受冻的人,你幸福快乐,想到那些活得不幸福不快乐的人,这个叫人道主义,人道主义的要求非常卑微,但是他的实现,要实现人道主义精神却很昂贵,价值很高,尤其是在目前为止,在这巴以冲突当中,所以说外交部长王毅讲的这四点和平,公义,国际法与人道主义,刚好都是有关于国际纷争的问题,而且也非常符合哲学的观点,可能有人会讲,你讲了这么多哲学观点,太抽象了,太理想了,实际上的情况,却不是这样子,我提出三点来回应,首先第一点你要了解这是一个非常积极的,因为至少中国从头到尾就是一个和平的文化,只是原来我们觉得如果你实力不够强大,你落后,你就得挨打,现在中国本身要追求和平的前提是我要强大,强大到足以原谅我的敌人的时候,这个和平就能够发生,所以说他是个非常积极的观点,你必须先强大,你自己要硬,就是你自己要非常强大的时候,别人就不敢对你怎么样,你才有可能原谅那些比你弱小的敌人,这是第一点,它非常积极;第二点,目前为止全世界的走向,大家看的非常明白,国际法也好联合国也好,美国永远支持以色列,从1948年以色列建国以来,到今天75年了,他们的立场有改变过吗?没有改变过,这个世界发展到今天还不够乱吗?这个世界之所以乱的原因就是有人坚持己见,认为自己做的都对,所以我说这问题个不单纯,是一个钟宗教上,种族上甚至也不单纯,是一个政治与法律的问题,这也不是历史遗留下来的问题,而纯粹是有的人的想法做法非常极端,所导致出来的结果,但是这个世界上能没有中国这个选项吗?如果没有这个选项的话,大家要面对什么?难道你跟我之间都能够看到上百万的人流离失所,因为居无定所七八十年的难民,最后都死于非命,你能够看到世界的悲剧这样发生吗?所以说中国做了一个非常好的一个选择,第三点我必须要强调,认为哲学讲的是不切实际的理念的人,完全对不起自己,人之所以为人的基本精神,请大家要知道一件事情,我们今天很幸运做人很幸运地活在一个科技进步的社会当中,我们有很快速的发展,我们的生活,大多数人都不错,但是请你不要忘了,今天能够有这种感觉,都是在没有战乱的情况下,才能够活得快乐,活得幸福,甚至活得健康,活得长久,你在这种情况之下,你所得到的一切,也是别人所想要的,如果有一些人只想到健康跟快乐是为了自己,别人都不管的话,那这种情况下,你也别想健康,也别想快乐,因为那些被你放弃的人,被你抛诸脑后的人,他也不会认为你活得快乐跟健康,是他所想要,只要有的人不想要你活得快乐,活得健康,就真的不会解决巴以之间的纷争,所以说大家在整个思想上的观念,要基于这种哲学的理想,放在现实中,做最具体的考量,“己所不欲勿施于人”孔老夫子的道理讲得非常简单,要清楚你一时之间的快乐却是别人永久的痛,情何以堪呢?所以从这个角度来讲,我认为虽然大家一致公认巴以的冲突非常的难,谈到它的历史,大家解释起来,错综复杂,但是实际上只有透过哲学的理念,中国外交部长王毅讲的话,仔细想想看,我刚刚说的内容,你就会发觉,除了强调和平公义国际法与人道主义的话,你真的没有别的办法,也因为这个原因,所以我希望中国的想法跟政策能够受到大家的重视,另外我也对现存的,以巴之间的冲突,以及所有因为这个冲突而受害的人,表达我的意思,是这颗非常微薄的同情心,你们可能不需要我的同情心,但是如果每一个人都有同理心,这个世界就会更美好。
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been ongoing for ten days, and it feels very saddening. It is arguably one of the most serious issues on the international stage since the end of World War II, affecting a great number of people, both directly and indirectly, in the region, around the world, and even globally. The conflict between Israelis and Palestinians is undeniably a human tragedy. Many people believe that there is no straightforward solution to this conflict. I myself pay close attention to the causes and processes of this conflict, and I acknowledge that it is indeed a highly complex issue. The complexity of this issue arises from the fact that it's not merely a matter of ethnicity, religion, history, or even politics and law, not to mention the military dimension. Given the multitude of complexities involved, I believe that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has become a subject that can be analyzed from a philosophical perspective. I have this idea, not only because I am a spiritual practitioner, but also because I've been listening to China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi continuously and very clearly explain China's stance on the Israel-Palestine conflict. When I discuss this viewpoint, it's not an attempt to promote Chinese interests, but rather to engage in a philosophical analysis based entirely on what he has said. Only by approaching this issue from a philosophical perspective can we truly comprehend that the victims are not only Palestinians but also Israelis and even people all over the world. To reach a deeper understanding, we must not hastily dismiss it as an issue that hasn't been addressed. So, what did Wang Yi say? He mentioned four principles in the face of this conflict: firstly, peace; secondly, justice; thirdly, international law; and fourthly, humanitarianism.
Among these four principles, it's evident that peace, justice, international law, and humanitarianism are all rooted in philosophical concepts. What is peace? It's a cultural spirit, particularly emphasized in Confucian culture, where the value of harmony is upheld. The idea of "harmony in diversity," respecting differences among each other while pursuing common peace, is at the core of Confucian thinking. Confucianism places great importance on peace, as seen in texts like the "Li Yun Da Tong" (Great Unity in the Book of Rites), which emphasizes the concept of a world of great harmony, serving as the foundation for global unity and the most important starting point. Without peace, how can we discuss the idea of great unity? It's important to note that when Chinese people talk about peace, it doesn't mean they are willing to be subjected to violence or to endure oppression. Elon Musk's statement holds deep philosophical meaning: "In the process of pursuing peace, you must be stronger than your opponent, strong enough to forgive them." While Chinese culture emphasizes the pursuit of peace, it also stresses not tolerating oppression. When discussing the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians, many people think about empathy. They think about the mistreatment, insults, and suffering faced by the Palestinians today, and it may seem similar to China 150 years ago when China lacked the strength to confront others. In such circumstances, simply advocating for peace might seem futile.
Foreign Minister Wang Yi's principle of peace underscores the importance of true strength, along with a cultural attitude and mindset that enables forgiveness. This is what genuine peace entails. Without achieving this, relying solely on the "eye for an eye" mentality, as seen in the case of Israeli Jews, where one killing leads to revenge killings, peace might seem distant. Furthermore, imperialism and the opportunistic bullying tendencies of certain groups, like Anglo-Saxons, can make the path to peace even more elusive.
Hence, peace is essential, but equally important is cultivating a culture of peace. Without this peace-oriented culture, the result may be a focus on oppressing others, which is not a path to true peace. The cycle of tit-for-tat will continue, leaving us to wonder when this cycle of revenge will ever end.
You've provided additional context to emphasize the significance of the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi's statements regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and how they can be analyzed from a philosophical perspective. You stress that this philosophical analysis is not about promoting Chinese views but about understanding the suffering of both Palestinians and Israelis and, indeed, people all over the world. Wang Yi's four principles—peace, justice, international law, and humanitarianism—serve as a philosophical framework to address the conflict and its implications.
Your analysis highlights that addressing this complex issue requires a philosophical approach that transcends narrow perspectives and recognizes the suffering of all parties involved. It underscores the importance of these principles, not just in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict but also in global conflicts and challenges. By taking a philosophical stance, one can better appreciate the broader implications of such conflicts and the need for a balanced and compassionate approach.
The quote you mentioned from Elon Musk, "In the process of seeking peace, you must be stronger than your adversary, strong enough to forgive them," is indeed a profound philosophical concept. It emphasizes that achieving peace involves both strength and the capacity for forgiveness. This perspective aligns with the idea that peace isn't just about being passive or tolerant; it's about having the strength and cultural mindset to forgive your adversaries.
Your analysis also touches on the importance of having a culture of peace, and you highlight how the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as broader international conflicts, can benefit from this perspective. It's not just about achieving peace through strength but also about fostering a culture and attitude that promotes forgiveness and reconciliation.
In essence, your interpretation emphasizes that true peace goes beyond mere absence of conflict; it requires a cultural shift and an attitude of understanding and forgiveness, which can contribute to resolving long-standing conflicts and promoting a more harmonious world.
Then, of course, you won't have a solution. The second principle is justice, moral justice. Justice is considered the most important virtue in people's lives. Why is it regarded this way? It's because in all school courses, in all philosophical understandings, and even in the news you see, the most prominent virtue is treating others the way you want to be treated. So, this is justice. The basic definition of justice is fairness. In this context, if you want others to treat you well, there's no problem; you need to treat others well first or ensure equality between each other. That's what we call justice. No one wishes to live in an unfair or unjust environment, right? This is a very obvious fact. So, I emphasize that justice is the most basic and vital virtue. It's something everyone can relate to. In a society, it is crucial to maintain at least a minimum level of fairness and justice. If there's no way to provide you with fair opportunities or ensure you receive just treatment, you will undoubtedly rise in protest and resistance. So, this is also a very important point.
The third principle is international law. What is international law? To be frank, the basic spirit of law is originally domestic. Why has international law emerged? This is a crucial aspect. International law is a rational choice and the result of whose viewpoint? This viewpoint comes from the German philosopher Immanuel Kant. He believed that for humanity to achieve permanent global peace, the most important point is for everyone to use rational thinking and shared ideas. Rational thinking inherently includes justice and peace. This is a highly significant viewpoint and a rational outcome.
So, after each world war, there was a need to establish international organizations, such as the League of Nations after World War I and the United Nations after World War II. Why were such international organizations only formed after major wars? It's because, after the brutality of war, irrational treatment, irrational slaughter, and even acts like genocide and various forms of cruelty, people realized they must return to reason. The first step in returning to reason is invariably to establish an international organization. This is the reason behind the birth of the League of Nations and the United Nations."
Additionally, the most crucial aspect is that as long as we have international law and international courts, international law is designed to address conflicts between countries and to establish a common basis that allows them to communicate and accept shared norms. The result of these common norms is known as international law. If we lack these common norms, people will only remember the differences between races, historical animosities, religious conflicts, and political system disparities. So, what kind of results would we have? We would naturally have different understandings of the law. Therefore, it is essential to emphasize international law. The importance of international law lies not in the word "law" but in the term "international." To achieve any specific results on the international stage, you must start with reason. This is what we call international law. You must abide by international law because it represents a shared human understanding based on reason.
The fourth point is humanitarianism. Humanitarianism is fundamental to what makes us human. You should understand that what sets humans apart from animals is our capacity for rational thinking. In essence, humans and animals are quite similar, but we differ significantly from animals because we can think rationally. This capacity for rational thinking leads us to develop a sense of morality, a sense of compassion, and a sense of ethics. All of these are manifestations of our humanitarian spirit. In the context of international conflicts and crises, emphasizing humanitarianism is crucial because it reminds us of our shared human values and our responsibility to protect and care for one another.
The external appearance of humans, their physiology, characteristics, and even their emotions such as joy, anger, sorrow, and happiness are quite similar to those of animals. However, there's a significant difference: humans are inherently moral beings. Besides self-preservation, we possess a sense of compassion. When we see others suffering, we cannot simply ignore it. Now, Israel ordered Palestinian in the northern part of Gaza Stripe, relocating to the southern Gaza region within 24 hours, the United Nations has declared it impossible. In this situation, it has been suggested that if the deadline passes, a direct siege will be implemented, with tanks and infantry entering the area. It's important to understand that the people of Gaza are in dire circumstances. The Israeli Minister of Defense has mentioned cutting off water, electricity, food, and medicine. Without these resources, people would not be able to survive. The way people treat each other is more direct than concepts of justice and righteousness because we have a sense of compassion.
I want to be clear; I haven't been to Israel, let alone Gaza. However, through various videos and social media posts, I've seen the images and heard the tragic stories that illustrate the dire situation.
It's not only the tragic stories of the Palestinians; there are also many Israelis who have lost their lives. I feel sorrow for all of them, and I often wonder when this cycle of revenge will end. This illustrates a crucial point. Even based on my own instincts, when my own survival isn't an issue, my compassion naturally arises when I see these videos and photos. I don't want to witness such suffering. This is what we call humanitarianism. It means that, on a basic level, you think about the fact that you have enough to eat and you think about those who don't. When you're warm, you think about those who are cold. When you're happy and content, you think about those who are not. This is humanitarianism.
The requirements of humanitarianism are humble, but its realization can be very costly and challenging, especially in the context of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. So, what Foreign Minister Wang Yi mentioned—these four principles of peace, justice, international law, and humanitarianism—are all directly related to international conflicts and are in alignment with philosophical perspectives.
Some might say that these philosophical ideas are too abstract or idealistic, but...
In reality, the situation is more complex. I'd like to respond with three points:
Firstly, you need to understand that this is a very proactive approach. China has a long history of valuing peace. The key here is that China now understands the importance of strength. To pursue peace, you first need to become strong, strong enough to forgive your enemies. This is a proactive viewpoint. You must become powerful and self-reliant, so others dare not harm you, and only then can you consider forgiving those weaker than you.
Secondly, when we look at the current global landscape, it's evident that international law and organizations like the United Nations have their limitations. The United States has consistently supported Israel since its establishment in 1948, and this stance hasn't changed over the past 75 years. Has the world become any less chaotic during this time? No, in fact, one of the reasons the world remains in turmoil is that some nations insist on their own views and believe they are always right. Therefore, I emphasize that this issue is not straightforward.
It's a complex issue involving not just religion and ethnicity but also politics and law. This isn't merely a historical legacy; it's a consequence of extreme ideologies held by some individuals. However, can the world afford to not have China as an option? Without this option, what would we all face? Could we bear witness to millions of people being displaced, living without a home for seven or eight decades, eventually meeting tragic ends? So, China has made a very good choice in this regard.
Thirdly, I must emphasize that those who view philosophy as impractical are doing themselves a disservice. Please understand that the fundamental spirit of being human, we are fortunate to live in a technologically advanced society today, enjoying rapid progress in our lives. However, don't forget that our present state of happiness and well-being is only possible because we live in a relatively peaceful environment. You can be happy, healthy, and live a long life under these conditions.
Everything you have, others desire as well. If some people only think about their own health and happiness without caring about others, then you also shouldn't expect to be healthy or happy. Those people you abandon or neglect won't consider your happiness and health as something they desire. As long as there are people who don't want you to be happy and healthy, the conflict between Israelis and Palestinians won't be resolved. So, when shaping your thoughts and ideas, it's essential to base them on philosophical ideals and apply them practically. The principle "Do not do to others what you would not want done to yourself," as taught by Confucius, is straightforward. It's important to understand that your momentary happiness could be someone else's enduring pain. From this perspective, even though it's widely acknowledged that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is extremely challenging, and its history is intricate and convoluted, there's really no other solution apart from emphasizing the principles of peace, justice, international law, and humanitarianism, as stated by China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi. These principles are the only way forward.
So, I hope that China's ideas and policies can receive everyone's attention. Additionally, I would like to convey my feelings of sympathy towards the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict and all the people who are suffering due to this conflict. It's a humble form of empathy from me. You might not need my empathy, but if every individual has empathy, this world will become a better place.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)