Can America and China avoid collision?

It's really a greagt pleasure to be here in Colombia among so many young old friends in the room as you know i lived in New York for ten and half years and probably the New York city is my second home and so it's a great pleasure that after i stepped down as dean i got this invitation from colombia to be the george ball adjunct professor here and of course i've chosen a rather challenging topic as john said but in doing so i want mention that i'm going to try and observe the spirit of George Ball in my remarks as you said he was a great dissenter so i may also be crossing some red line it might comments today but i hope you'll forgive me that i for doing so in the spirit of George Ball now of course the question that i've chosen to address this really the biggest question of our time what is going to be the relationship within the world's number one power, United States, and the world's number one emerging power,China, and because I will describe later but what's growing pessimism about to what's going to happen I think the conventional wisdom now is that there's more likely to be a collision than not so the goal of my remarks today which i hope to actually develop into a book which i hope will have equally propagated title so what i'm going to share with you basically or some preliminary thoughts my ideas i'm working on and I would of course since i see so many good friends yeah i hope that all of you will come back to me some feedback to it but this is i propose to sort of organie my remarks I'll give three-part answer to the question "Can China and America avoid a collision" in part one I'll talk about the global context in which we are operating in because the global context obviously influences the relationship within China and America and then i'll talk about the impact of this global context on China and America. And i would like to conclude by giving some sort of pratical advice to both China and America on how to void the impending collision so let me begin by talking about the global context and yeah i'm going to take the perspective in the sense of a future historian someone in the year 2100 looking back at 2018 and what would we see in our world today and frankly what the future historian would see is the exact opposite what is a contemporary wisdom especially in the west and you know in the west there's a tremendous amount of pessimism about the world where we are heading and so on so forth but actually from the perspective of a future historian, he or she will see clearly that the human condition has actually never been better and indeed in this book that which by the way technically is not launched yet he'll be launched in London in April called "Has the west lost it" this is what I say in it and this actually describes that great how much our world has progressed i say imagine a world where virtually no human being goes to bed feeling hungry or where absolute poverty has all but disappeared where every child gets fascinated and goes to school where every home has electricity where human being carries some kind of smart phone giving him or her access to unlimited troves of information such a world will be considered as one that borders on utopia but that's where we are today in study after studies will show you that we have done a far greater job by a better job reducing violence, Steven Pinker's documented this it from Arvin as he said we have gone from 65,000 deaths per year in the 1950s to less 2000 per year today and others have noted that in 1800 there were 120 million people in the world that could read and write today, they're 6.2 billion people with the same skill and let me just quote and we just want quote from Johan Novick of the Cato Institue he said if someone had told you in 1990 over the next 25 years world hunger were decline by 40% child mortality would have an extreme poverty would fall by three-quarter so you'd have told him they were naïve fool but the naive fool were right and i want to emphasize that by 2030 global poverty is going to go down to zero. so there has been a tremendous upliftment of the human condition and why has this happen I can say very very simply at the end of the day the Western project has succeeded because one of the goals of the West's always was to share is best practices its wisdom with the rest of the world and they have spread and i've said there are seven pillars of Western wisdom that explain Asia's rise i mean seven plus things like free-market economics, mastery of science and technology, the culture of pragmatism, culture of piece, rule of law, education, all these things spreading around the world and then the net result is that the human condition is improving and a large part of their courses are due of other is due because of the performance of the two most populous countriesin the world, china and india, and here again a future historian would say well that's not surprising from the year one to the year 1820 the two economies in the world are always those of China and India. It's only in the last 200 years of China and India went down. So it's perfectly natural to go back to a world where China and India become number one and number two and that's going to happen by 2050 and the latest and United States will be number three, and people say hey that's a normal world that has come back so so clearly we should be celebrating but as you all know we're not, and the question is why not, well there are many reasons for that but one reason for that of course is that as a result of the tremendous outstanding performance of China the power balance between China and America has shifted dramatically and I can tell you this the future historian be very surprise how fast this has happened, now actually I was thinking of putting up some slides I thought is that if I just give you just two statistics to remember to show you how fast the relative balance has shifted one statistic is in PPP terms purchasing power parity terms one statistics in what they called nominal market economy terms so in ppp terms in 1980 China's share of the global GNP was 2.2%,1980, United States share with 25% more than 10 times larger than ten times larger than that of China's, but by 2014 and even the so few people notice in PPP terms, China became number one, America became number two, and no one paid attention because everybody was paying attention to the nominal GNP figures but actually the change in the nominal GNP figures is even more astounding and is much more recent in the year 2000 in market economy terms China's is America's GNP was eight times that of China's, eight times; 2000 by 2015 it was 1.6 times, from eight times to 1.6 times in 15 years and by 2025 or even earlier possibly China's GNP in nominal terms will also become bigger and of course this changes everything, China will no longer behave in the same way that it did with United States when it has a bigger economy its one thing when your economy is 10% or 15%, it's another thing when your economy is bigger and of course this is clearly raised a lot of alarm bells and here I must say I'm actually astonished by the number of senior American figures who keep speaking in louder and louder voices saying "China is becoming a threat" the word "threat" is used very frequently,let me just give you three or four examples, in September last year CNN says America's top military officers General Joseph Dunford told Congress i quote "I think China probably poses the greatest threat to our nation by about 2025" right and he says China's military modernization targeting capabilities with the potential to degrade core US military technology advantages and of course you've heard of the statement by general Mattis he built on the U.S. DOD report in January 2018 last month and said we said that the two US rivals Russia and China are actively seeking to co-op or replaced the free and open order that has enable global security and prosperity since World War II and general Mattis had a great power competition not terrorism is now the primary focus of US national security; and then you had the head of CIA Mike Pompeo saying 18 days 21 days ago don't exist January he told the BBC that the Chinese efforts to exact covert influence over the West's just as concerning as Russian subversion and then the FBI Director said on February 13th, eight days ago, he says one of the things that we're trying to do is to view the China threat it's not just a whole of government threat but a whole of society threat on their end and I think it's gonna take a whole of society response from the United States to deal with China; this is all very senior figures and then of course you have the economist coming out a few weeks ago predicting that there'll be war and you, of course, you have the selling book by Graham Allison saying war is more likely between United States and China. so the question therefore is what's driving this pessimism about China because if you look at Chinese behavior the Chinese have given no indications that the marshalling great forces out to conquer other nations or even trying to replace the Americanman role in so many parts of the world; China is still today fundamentally concerned with what's happening in China and to the best of my knowledge does not want to step into the shoes of the United States, either in the middle reside or in eastern Europe or anywhere else; but nonetheless despite that China is perceived as a threat the question is why? in this is a key point I want to make I think the fundamental reason why China is seen as a threat either consciously,subconsciously unconsciously by people in American and many tragic thinkers in the West is because China is succeeding, despite the fact that it is not a democracy . China is succeeding even though it's run by the Chinese communist party and I think that's the core is you from which this fundamental distrust springs and so question we need to ask therefore is there something fundamentally wrong with China not becoming a democracy, should china become a democracy? right this is a thing that's very much in the subtext of peoples minds but question is never discussed in full so this is what i hope to do is the core part of my remarks to try and dive down to find a deeper sources of the distrust there but let me begin by emphasizing that what I'm not discussing is whether democracy is better than Chinese communist party rule, it's very clear that democracy obviously is a better political system of democracy is an inferior political system that's not the question the question is whether China today would be better off if it gets up is communist party rule and converts overnight to become a democracy which is in someways or another a sort of hidden wish of many people and here maybe here this is where I am invoking the spirit of George Ball I may say that if you try to view this question objectively, rationally, it's not clear that China will be better off in fact in many ways China will be far worse off and this is how I think the Chinese leaders of this question if they were asked entity in private they would point to several reasons why it would be a disaster for China to switch his political system today i'm not talking about 30 years from now, today, one, many of the countries that made a sudden transition to democracy in the last few decades have suffered a great deal and you can have many examples, exhibit a, is Yugoslavia that country broke down you all know how many people were killed, how democracy led to demagogues being elected nationalism and violence and conflict. The Chinese saw that activity was even more important for the Chinese what happened to Russia. Russia went overnight from communist party rule towards democracy and you know when I described you just now the how the world global onditions improving infant mortality going down,life expectancy going up, in Russia, the exact opposite happened, after democracy came, life expectancy went down, infant mortality went up, the economy inploded, and people suffer enormously, and I do know that the chinese have studied in great detail what happened to Russia, because he said hey this could happen to us too, so they have seen it and they know what could happen to China and the second point is if the Chinese view their history objectively and observe what happened in the last, let's say, 40 years, since Deng Xiaoping launched his four modernizations exactly 40 years ago; in 1978, if you look at against the backdrop of the last two 3000 years of Chinese history,the last 40 years clearly the best 40 years in the last 200 years since the opium war definitely of 1842, but even more amazingly if you view objectively the human condition of the Chinese people from the top to the bottom it's never been better in 4000 years, so for the last 40 year, they have delivered a human condition that the Chinese people have never ever experienced where virtually everybody goes to school, where everybody has a meal, and we can do an amazing number of things; i can tell you in 1980, for the first time to China the Beijing; people couldn't choose what to wear, they all wore maoist suits, right? they couldnt choose where to live,where to work, where to study, none of these choices would for that available for them. Today The same Beijing which ususally have only bicycles and no cars, has got massive traffic jams, used to have low building, not only as skyscrapers and has amazing booming middle class that is already today the worlds largest middle-class. So in the last 40 years. China has produced the world's largest middle-class population and of course they don't enjoy many of the political freedoms clearly that Americans enjoy, but I can tell you that 40 years ago no Chinese young student could go and study in any Ivy League or any other American university, today over 300,000 do and most of them go back but when let me give an even more stunning statistic in a year 1980, there were zero Chinese tourists going overseas, zero, only government officials travel, it was impossible for an ordinary Chinese season to travel,today,a hundred and twenty million go overseas freely, and an hundred and twenty million Chinese go back to China freely, so i mean to go back to the old Soviet analogy "this was a nation of gulags repress oppressive state",why? would 120 million Chinese go back? so clearly, something fundamental has changed in the Chinese condition even while it's been under communist party rule so so what the United States says sees as a completely static picture of China still remaining under Chinese Communist Party rule, is a China that has been completely transform in the last 40 years, even other things that are even more amazing about contemporary China as you know the theory is very clear if you don't have democracy if you don't have freedom of speech if you don't have freedom of media, people cannot think, they cannot innovate and they cannot become masters of world industries, right? I can tell you that the Chinese people don't have the right to vote, they don't have freedom of speech,they don't run a freedom of media but they're developing the most innovative economy in the world. In theory, it's not supposed to happen in practice is happening and I can tell you for someone like me goes to China regularly it's mind- boggling how China keeps changing year by year. and i found out i come from Singapore one of the most successful states in Asia we always thought we'll be ahead of China, and that i discovered to my embarrassment that Singapore so far behind because we still carry cash around no one carries cash, everyone carries a smart phone, they look at me very strangely when i produce cash what's this don't you know and when i went to give some lectures at Peking University the guy escorting me just took his phone put it on two bicycles i bicycle to my destination just for the phone you can do anything in China with a phone. and if you want a hot fried egg for breakfast at your doorstep you get it in China. that kind of got a quality of innovation that they're doing. it's stunning. and this is not just in Consumer area i mean I don't know enough about artificial intelligence, I don't know enough about super computers, I don't know enough about space exploration, but I do know that they made huge advances in those areas, so what in theory it's not supposed to happen is happening, but at the same time the American perception hasn't change. and here let me read to you something. it's a literal quote from the national security strategy of the United States of 2002, George W. Bush administration thank you Andy, Andy Nevin was my source i saw it in his class i said wow i must use this fight he's and this is what the statement says we welcome the emergence of a strong peaceful and prosperous China. the democratic development of China is crucial to the future yet quarter century of the beginning the process of shedding the worst features of the Communist legacy, China's leaders have not yet made the next series of not yet made the next series of fundamental choices about the character of the state and if they say they are in China in time China will find that social and political freedom is the only way that China can become great, but China is becoming great, and this statement seems so strange this is what the theory is supposed to be, but the practice is completely different. and so going back to the perspective of a future historian looking at American perceptions of China and insisting that China must follow the American path and the future historian was scratch his head and say this is a civilization that's been around for 4000 years? it has had his ups his downs ups and downs now it's rising with great ferocity the last 40 years in the best 40 years in China's history and just at a moment when he's doing incredibly well,a young 250 year-old nation is telling the 4000 your civilization you don't know what's good for you, we know what's good for you, if you don't become democratic, if you don't have human rights, if you don't initial, so that you will go nowhere, again future historian would be very very puzzled this statement just looking over the long view at What China has done. So clearly i'm trying to suggest to you very delicately is that it's time for America to change its language and concepts that it uses to understand China, and it's obviously what's happening in China doesn't fit western political theory, so you have a choice do you want to stick to the theory, or do you want to pay attention to the facts and the facts don't fit the theory and so we have to adjust and deal with this because if you don't do it then clearly the collision cost will come because China I am almost 99.9% certain will not change his political system on the advice of the United States of America. It won't, it just won't. it's going to keep on doing what he thinks it's right for himself. and the question therefore is can the United accept this. right? here i want to add an important historical footnote that actually i must confess I just read from Grandma Allison's book the Thucydides trap book and he says many in America wish that China could be like America a way as it was rising and Grandma listeners be careful what you wish for.For because he says in 1897, soon after Teddy Roosevelt arrived in Washington DC, within ten years of Teddy Roosevelt arriving in Washington DC and he was so confident that the American century was on the way so sure that history was on his side and he marched on and this is what he did United States declared war on Spain expelling it and acquiring Peto Rico Guam and the Philippines threatened Germany and Britain with war supported insurrection in Colombia to create Panama declared itself policemen of Western Hemisphere and asserted right to intervene anyway, United States as a rising power so grandma Allison gives some very good advice. Please please don't ask China to be like America. as it is rising because if you're doing that your're giving the wrong advice to China. so the question therefore is what is the right advice to get to China and how do we handle a situation which clearly doesn't fit into any of these perspectives and I believe there is actually a three-part solution to this question of how to handle create a sustainable positive relationship between China and America; there are two things that America can do and one thing that China can do. On the part of America: and this is an idea that comes not from me and this is not come from me, it comes from Bill Clinton and actually i discuss it in one of my books the great convergence and i heard it i heard it being said recently the dinner in the home of Michelle from Garetg Evans. Gareth Evans, former Austrian foreign minister was in a panel with Bill Clinton and Bill Clinton's advice to his fellow Americans as far as i can tell was clearly America has two choices today, either you continue to strive to be the top dog forever,to be number one forever, or you think you can't be number one forever, why not try to create a world in which you be comfortable in when you're no longer than a number one, therefore, the repentance i must say sensible advice was why not create a rule space world. we have more international law, partnerships, multilateralism and the reason for doing that the reason for creating a multilatural world is that America by slipping on the handcuffs of multilaturalism on itself. Well then pass on the handcuffs to next one power which is China, that's Bill Clinton's advice and i agree completely agree with it. why doesn't America why this still number create a world in which will be comfortable where it is no longer number one, and the good news here i have to give you some good news since i've given you so much bad news is that I think China can accept a multilateral rules-based order, the reason being the Chinese don't have a global plan and global vision to shape the world, change the world, they are actually quite happy with the world that exists today; China today is the biggest beneficiary of the rules-space order that America gifted to the world at the end of World War two. so why should China want to change it, and i can tell you i was in Davos last year in January 2017 hearing Xi Jingping speak about how China wanted to create a rules-based order and i think he meant it quite sincerely because China is benefiting from it. and as you know i mean this is a subject of a long discussion but America's attitude to as multilateralism has always been ambivalent on the one hand is created lots of institutions IMF World Bank, WTO and so and so forth, on the other hand it is weakened many of these multilateral institutions, so why not switch from a policy of weakening multilateralism to strengthening multilateralism, and if we can create a rules space order that rule-space order will lubricate the relationship, between China and America and avoid a coallition i say this by the way someone who like Josh Ball was also ambassador to the UN for 10 years and I can tell you that multilateralism works, when you put people together in a room you get them to negotiage you get them to agree they do reach agreements they rule they do reach conventions and then the conventions hold like United Nations Convention the law the sea which is fundamentally holding and is still there even though the United States has not ratified it yet. so that's one thing the US can do. the second thing that the US can do is to demonstrate the power of democracy not through preaching but through internal behavior by showing that if you have a democratic society you outperform everybody else you produce the worlds most dynamic economy, you produce the best research, and you produce the best political leaders, because at the end of tthe day, i must emphasize i admire the United States i grew up as a child in control by the United States, because the amzing society is done things that no ohte human society had done before. but he was your internal performance that inspired everyone when you send someone to the moon, wow, that's amazing it inspires everyone,so the best way to show the power of democracy is not by talking about it, it is not by saying like George W. Bush saying that if you don't become a democracy, you have failed just do it. show the world that a successful democracy can outperform everybody else and by the way if it leads to a competition between China and America in the economic sphere. between your industries and Chinese industries that's good for the world, economic competition is not a zero-sum game, economic competition at the end of the day produces as we know, better results for everyone. so more economic competition between US and China in a rules based world is a good thing, that's what the United States can do so we can do better than you, it can be done, you can still do it but of course i would say don't underestimate the competition from China, because if you see how much they have achieved in the last 40 years put on your seatbelts, the next 30 years will be even more amazing. so don't underestimate Chinese economic competition and the third thing as I said what China needs to do that China needs to understand that in a very deep way it's rise, it's rapid rise has created concerns all over the world not just in America even in his own neighborhood in Southeast Asia where I come from there is a lot of concern and it's a natural concern, imagine we are all in this room together, right now as a tiny little mouse all in the corner and suddenly in the room that mouse becomes an elephant in the same room, surely you be concened, that's how all the neighbor of China feel, it's perfecly natural and the Chinese are sometimes puzzled by that, , we haven't done anything to you, we haven't sent an army to invade you, we haven't taken things away from you, we haven't done what Teddy Roosevelt did in 1897, why why are you so worried about us, well sighs, and china this is not a secret has made some mistakes, it has become rather assertive in it's foreign policy, by the same time i had a qualification it has become assertive but not aggressive, and this is one thing that future historians again will compare and look back let's say that dipped in the 28 years since the cold war ended, China has not bomb one country, not one, how many countries is America bombed, now, behavior matters,so if we want to ensure that China continues to not bomb countries you have to create again the logic for that not happening. but, I think we can persuade the Chinese that because you've become so big everything you do has a mega effect so please be more careful in what you do, in my sense is that the Chinese are beginning to understand that they have to be more careful in how they handle the rest of the world because they can feel the blowback that's coming so at the end of the day to conclude I would say clearly we face a big challenge in ensuring that there is no correlation between China and America but if we all make the right strategic adjustments and this is a critical point America has never ever maybe in the last 150 years had to make strategic adjustments to another power never now it's got to learn the art of making strategic adjustments it can be done and I hope it will be done thank you. Kishore Mahbabani gave a leture in Columbia SIIPA 3/9/2018